International Journal of Disaster Risk Managemen (IJDRM)

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management is a peer-reviewed (twice a year) journal serves all aspects of disaster studies, policy, and management. It provides a platform for academics, policymakers and practitioners to publish high-quality research and practice concerning natural disasters, anthropogenic disasters, complex political emergencies and crises around the world. View - http://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/about

Institutionalizing Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile States: Local Governance Capacity, Conflict Insecurity, and Community Resilience in Lower Juba, Somalia

First page of “Institutionalizing Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile States: Local Governance Capacity, Conflict Insecurity, and Community Resilience in Lower Juba, Somalia”, published in IJDRM, Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026).

Authors

Akaninyene Unaam

Abstract

Fragile and conflict-affected states face compounded disaster risks where weak governance structures intersect with climate stressors and armed violence. This study examines how local governance capacity influences community resilience through the institutionalization of disaster risk reduction, and under what conditions conflict insecurity moderates this relationship, in Lower Juba, Somalia. Drawing on adaptive governance theory, institutional theory, and community resilience frameworks, the study tests a moderated mediation model using survey data from 400 households across four drought- and conflict-affected communities. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the four-factor structure of the constructs, with a comparative fit index of 0.96 and a root mean square error of approximation of 0.05. Bootstrapped mediation analysis with 5,000 samples revealed that disaster risk reduction institutionalization partially mediates the relationship between governance capacity and community resilience, with an indirect effect of β = 0.28 and a 95% confidence interval of [0.19, 0.39], accounting for 53.8% of the total effect. Moderation analysis showed that conflict insecurity significantly weakens the positive association between governance capacity and resilience, with a change in R-squared of 0.04 and p = 0.003. Findings demonstrate that governance capacity enhances resilience primarily when disaster risk reduction mechanisms are institutionalized, yet persistent insurgent insecurity undermines institutional effectiveness. The study contributes rare empirical evidence from a highly under-researched fragile setting. It offers context-specific policy guidance on integrating conflict-sensitive disaster risk reduction in sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction; governance capacity; state fragility; armed conflict; community resilience; Somalia; adaptive governance

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 367-384.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/c06z9913

Read the full open-access article:
https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/210

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/210/227

Suggested citation

Unaam, A. (2026). Institutionalizing Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile States: Local Governance Capacity, Conflict Insecurity, and Community Resilience in Lower Juba, Somalia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 367-384. https://doi.org/10.66050/c06z9913

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About IJDRM

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) is a double-blind peer-reviewed (twice a year), open-access journal that serves all aspects of disaster studies, policy, and management. It provides a platform for academics, policymakers, and practitioners to publish high-quality research and practice concerning natural disasters, anthropogenic disasters, complex political emergencies, and crises around the world. The publisher is Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, Belgrade, Serbia - link. The founder of the journal is Assist. Prof. Vladimir M. Cvetković from the University of Belgrade, Faculty of Security Studies - link ISSN (printed edition) 2620-2662, ISSN (electronic edition) 2620-2786, UDC: 614.8.069 Submission of the articles doesn't involve article processing charges (APCs) neither submission charges. The journal crosses and affects interdisciplinary boundaries to promote communication, collaboration, and teamwork between professions and disciplines to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development. The journal encourages the interchange of ideas and experience, to decrease the risk of disasters and build community resilience within the context of sustainable development and planetary boundaries. This is an open-access journal which means that all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. Keywords Disasters, disaster risk management, natural disaster, technological disaster, emergency situations, crisis management, theory and practice, mitigation, preparedness, hazards, policy, natural, complex, emergencies, political, aid, relief, developing, humanitarian, field, reports, refugee, journal, research, analysis, review. This journal permits and encourages authors to post items submitted to the journal on personal websites or institutional repositories both prior to and after publication while providing bibliographic details that credit, if applicable, its publication in this journal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) allows authors to deposit publisher's version/PDF in an institutional repository, research gate, Academia.edu, and non-commercial subject-based repositories, or to publish it on Author's personal website (including social networking sites) and/or departmental website, at any time after publication in compliance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial – NoDerrivatives 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). The Publisher's copyright and source must be acknowledged and a link must be made to the article's DOI (HTML link). Journal will cover all aspects of disaster risk management from a global perspective, including but not limited to: Disaster and crisis management theory and practice, Risk awareness and assessment, Hazard and vulnerability analysis, Knowledge development including education, training, research, and information on disasters, Public commitment and institutional frameworks, including organizational, policy, legislation, and community action, Disaster prevention, mitigation, response, recovery planning, policies, and implementation, Promotes the interchange of ideas between practitioners, policy-makers, and academics. Submission Process Authors are kindly invited to submit their formatted full papers. All paper submissions will be blind peer-reviewed and evaluated based on originality, research content, correctness, relevance to conference, and readability (reviewer form). Please read the complete submission and formatting guidelines before submitting your paper. Please, use the template for writing the article - link and guidelines for contributors - link Papers that are not adapted to the form will be rejected. You can submit your paper through the following - http://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/about/submissions

Editor-in-Chief - Assist. Prof. Vladimir M. Cvetković

Vladimir M. Cvetkovic is the Assis. Prof. (Disaster Risk Management) at the University of Belgrade, Faculty of Security, and has been engaged in research in the field of disaster studies for 15 years. He has published over 250 research papers and 20 scientific monographs. He is the founder of the Scientific Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management in Serbia, the International Institute for Disaster Research, and Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Management.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Managemen (IJDRM)

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM)

Institutionalizing Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile States: Local Governance Capacity, Conflict Insecurity, and Community Resilience in Lower Juba, Somalia

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