International Journal of Disaster Risk Managemen (IJDRM)

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management is a peer-reviewed (twice a year) journal serves all aspects of disaster studies, policy, and management. It provides a platform for academics, policymakers and practitioners to publish high-quality research and practice concerning natural disasters, anthropogenic disasters, complex political emergencies and crises around the world. View - http://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/about

Advanced Flood Risk Mapping in Bouarfa Watershed Using Integrated Machine Learning, GIS, and MCDM

Authors

Alioua Zahar Elkheir
Mezrhab Abdelhamid
Laaboudi Mohammed
Achebour Ali
Sahil Mohammed
Elyagoubi Said
Melhaoui Mohammed

Abstract

In Morocco, floods occur frequently, often causing significant damage to infrastructure and the environment due to a lack of adequate protective measures. The unpredictability of these events is attributable to climate change and the irregular nature of weather conditions. However, determining flood susceptibility can facilitate the mitigation and prevention of risk. This study aims at mapping flood-susceptible areas in the Bouarfa watershed using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach integrated within a Geographic Information System (GIS). Seven key conditioning parameters were considered: altitude, slope, geology, drainage density, flow accumulation, land use/land cover (LULC), and soil. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to assign weights to these factors. The results obtained demonstrate that 39.53% (546.24 km2) of the territory is exposed to a very low to moderate flood risk and 60.47% (835.59 km2) to a high to very high flood risk. The model's accuracy was validated using historical flood locations and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) method, which yielded a value of 84.5%, indicating very good performance. This map serves as a critical tool for decision-makers for risk mitigation and land-use planning in this arid region.

Keywords: hierarchy analytical process (AHP); flood susceptibility; multi-criteria decision making (MCDM); vulnerability; Bouarfa watershed

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 7, No. 2 (2025), pp. 1-20.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.2.1

Read the full open-access article:
https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/138

Download PDF:
https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/138/148

Suggested citation

Elkheir, A. Z., Abdelhamid, M., Mohammed, L., Ali, A., Mohammed, S., Said, E., & Mohammed, M. (2025). Advanced Flood Risk Mapping in Bouarfa Watershed Using Integrated Machine Learning, GIS, and MCDM. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 7(2), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2025.7.2.1

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About IJDRM

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) is a double-blind peer-reviewed (twice a year), open-access journal that serves all aspects of disaster studies, policy, and management. It provides a platform for academics, policymakers, and practitioners to publish high-quality research and practice concerning natural disasters, anthropogenic disasters, complex political emergencies, and crises around the world. The publisher is Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, Belgrade, Serbia - link. The founder of the journal is Assist. Prof. Vladimir M. Cvetković from the University of Belgrade, Faculty of Security Studies - link ISSN (printed edition) 2620-2662, ISSN (electronic edition) 2620-2786, UDC: 614.8.069 Submission of the articles doesn't involve article processing charges (APCs) neither submission charges. The journal crosses and affects interdisciplinary boundaries to promote communication, collaboration, and teamwork between professions and disciplines to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development. The journal encourages the interchange of ideas and experience, to decrease the risk of disasters and build community resilience within the context of sustainable development and planetary boundaries. This is an open-access journal which means that all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. Keywords Disasters, disaster risk management, natural disaster, technological disaster, emergency situations, crisis management, theory and practice, mitigation, preparedness, hazards, policy, natural, complex, emergencies, political, aid, relief, developing, humanitarian, field, reports, refugee, journal, research, analysis, review. This journal permits and encourages authors to post items submitted to the journal on personal websites or institutional repositories both prior to and after publication while providing bibliographic details that credit, if applicable, its publication in this journal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM) allows authors to deposit publisher's version/PDF in an institutional repository, research gate, Academia.edu, and non-commercial subject-based repositories, or to publish it on Author's personal website (including social networking sites) and/or departmental website, at any time after publication in compliance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial – NoDerrivatives 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). The Publisher's copyright and source must be acknowledged and a link must be made to the article's DOI (HTML link). Journal will cover all aspects of disaster risk management from a global perspective, including but not limited to: Disaster and crisis management theory and practice, Risk awareness and assessment, Hazard and vulnerability analysis, Knowledge development including education, training, research, and information on disasters, Public commitment and institutional frameworks, including organizational, policy, legislation, and community action, Disaster prevention, mitigation, response, recovery planning, policies, and implementation, Promotes the interchange of ideas between practitioners, policy-makers, and academics. Submission Process Authors are kindly invited to submit their formatted full papers. All paper submissions will be blind peer-reviewed and evaluated based on originality, research content, correctness, relevance to conference, and readability (reviewer form). Please read the complete submission and formatting guidelines before submitting your paper. Please, use the template for writing the article - link and guidelines for contributors - link Papers that are not adapted to the form will be rejected. You can submit your paper through the following - http://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/about/submissions

Editor-in-Chief - Assist. Prof. Vladimir M. Cvetković

Vladimir M. Cvetkovic is the Assis. Prof. (Disaster Risk Management) at the University of Belgrade, Faculty of Security, and has been engaged in research in the field of disaster studies for 15 years. He has published over 250 research papers and 20 scientific monographs. He is the founder of the Scientific Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management in Serbia, the International Institute for Disaster Research, and Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Management.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Managemen (IJDRM)

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM)

Advanced Flood Risk Mapping in Bouarfa Watershed Using Integrated Machine Learning, GIS, and MCDM

Authors

Abstract

Publication details

Suggested citation

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