Assessing Disaster Risk and Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Agriculture: Evidence from Chandradip Union of Bauphal Upazila, Bangladesh

Authors

Md. Faisal
Imran Hawladar
Vladimir Cvetković

Abstract

The coastal zone of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, which significantly affect agricultural production and livelihoods. Agriculture is the primary livelihood for most coastal communities. Patuakhali is a coastal district of Bangladesh, and Bauphal Upazila is one of its most agriculturally dependent areas. Therefore, this study was conducted in Chandradip Union of Bauphal Upazila to assess disaster risks in the agricultural sector. The main objective of the study was to identify and assess natural disaster risks in agriculture through hazard, vulnerability, and capacity assessments, and to explore suitable adaptation strategies for enhancing disaster resilience. Both primary and secondary data were used in this research. A total of 100 households were randomly selected and interviewed using semi-structured questionnaires. In addition, five Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and five Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) were conducted. Field observations and relevant secondary data sources were also utilized. The findings reveal that riverbank erosion (1.043), storm surge (0.942), and cyclone (0.934) are the most significant disaster risks affecting the agricultural sector due to their high hazard intensity, high vulnerability, and low coping capacity. The study further identifies that alternative livelihood options (27%), loans and subsidies (25%), and short-duration rice cultivation (24%) are the most commonly recommended adaptation strategies by the farming community. These are followed by embankment construction (22%) and farm mechanization (2%). The study highlights the need for integrated risk management and strengthened adaptive capacity to enhance agricultural resilience in coastal Bangladesh. This study provided empirical evidence, based primarily on data, on how vulnerability is reduced through an adaptation strategy. The results of this study will help people in coastal communities reduce their vulnerability. This study can assist policymakers and donor agencies in developing policies and funding different development projects in Bangladesh's rural coastal community.

Keywords: disaster risk management; coastal agriculture; agricultural resilience; hazard assessment; vulnerability assessment; adaptation strategies; riverbank erosion; storm surge; cyclone; Bangladesh

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 423-444.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/6pd80w30

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/226

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/226/229

Suggested citation

Md. Faisal, Imran Hawladar, & Cvetković, V. (2026). Assessing Disaster Risk and Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Agriculture: Evidence from Chandradip Union of Bauphal Upazila, Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 423-444. https://doi.org/10.66050/6pd80w30

Beyond the Floodwaters: Unraveling the Deep-Rooted Causes of Educational Exclusion in Haor Communities in Bangladesh

Authors

Mohammad Fakhrus Salam
Shimul Gope
Sharmin Akter

Abstract

Primary school dropout is an urgent issue in the Haor regions of Bangladesh due to recurrent flooding and socio-economic barriers, leading to educational exclusion. The study aims to highlight the main causes of dropout in Haor villages of Ajmiriganj Upazila, Habiganj District. While progress has been made in providing access to basic education, dropout rates are very high in Haor regions, indicating that structural barriers to basic education are more serious than environmental ones. The study is guided by a theoretical framework that encompasses comprehensive theoretical inputs, such as Social Reproduction Theory and Human Capital Theory. The study adopted a primarily descriptive qualitative research design. Interviews, FGDs, audio recordings, and observations of 350 people (students, guardians, teachers, and school management committee members) in five unions were conducted to gather data. Secondary sources were books, journal articles, official publications, and reputable websites. The results show that the low employment opportunities for guardians, lack of qualified teachers, environmental vulnerability, and early marriage, particularly among girls, are the key factors that lead to school dropouts. Its key policy and practice implications include improving household livelihoods, upgrading school facilities, strengthening teacher recruitment, and holding community-based awareness sessions to reduce the early marriage rate. These are essential strategies to support educational resilience and inclusive development in the Haor regions of Bangladesh.

Keywords: flood; Haor; school drop-out; educational marginalization; climate vulnerability; rural education

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 409-422.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/g2hpng07

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/220

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/220/228

Suggested citation

Salam, M. F., Gope, S., & Akter, S. (2026). Beyond the Floodwaters: Unraveling the Deep-Rooted Causes of Educational Exclusion in Haor Communities in Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 409-422. https://doi.org/10.66050/g2hpng07

Policy, Risk and Innovation: A Mixed-Methods Framework for Using AI to Foster Inclusion in Marginalized Communities in Bangladesh

Authors

Ritesh Karmaker
Vladimir M. Cvetković

Abstract

This study examines how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and the implementation of policies shape inclusive educational outcomes for marginalized learners in Bangladesh, using evidence from Sherpur Sadar Upazilla. A convergent mixed-methods design integrated a student survey (N = 213; seven institutions; March–September 2024) with qualitative data from 37 stakeholders (teachers and policymakers) collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Quantitative findings show that AI tool adoption was the strongest predictor of a composite educational outcome score (β = 0.38, p < 0.001), followed by institutional support (β = 0.25, p = 0.01). In contrast, the policy implementation gap—defined as the mismatch between policy intent and on-the-ground delivery—was negatively associated with outcomes (β = −0.12, p = 0.04). Digital infrastructure quality was positively associated with the outcome but was not statistically significant in the multivariable model (β = 0.17, p = 0.12). The model demonstrated strong explanatory power (R² = 0.67; F(4, 208) = 42.3; p < 0.001). Disparity analyses revealed persistent urban–rural inequities in reliable internet access (94.6% vs. 69.7%) and device readiness, with tablet access emerging as a key enabler of advanced AI-supported learning. Qualitative results corroborated three binding constraints: limited teacher AI preparedness, affordability barriers, and trust concerns related to privacy and algorithmic bias. Building on these findings, the paper proposes a policy–innovation framework centered on localized AI toolkits, sustained teacher upskilling, device-access interventions, and enforceable fairness and transparency safeguards to advance equitable learning opportunities.

Keywords: hazards; artificial intelligence; government policies; marginalized communities; Bangladesh; inclusive education

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 385-408.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/scv48268

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/237

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/237/226

Suggested citation

Karmaker, R., & Cvetković, V. M. (2026). Policy, Risk and Innovation: A Mixed-Methods Framework for Using AI to Foster Inclusion in Marginalized Communities in Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 385-408. https://doi.org/10.66050/scv48268

Recurrent Urban Flooding in Nairobi City: A Systematic Review of Environmental Determinants, Public Health Impacts and Policy Gaps

Authors

Henry Koech

Abstract

Nairobi has experienced recurrent and increasingly severe urban flooding over the past two decades. The April–May 2024 floods claimed between 267 and 294 lives and displaced approximately 380,000 people across Kenya, while the March 2026 flash floods — triggered by 112mm of rainfall within 24 hours — killed at least 66 people nationally and caused an estimated USD 300 million in infrastructure damage. These events reflect a systemic failure of intersecting environmental, structural, and governance determinants. This narrative systematic review (PRISMA 2020-adapted; final search: 31 March 2026) synthesizes evidence on the environmental determinants, public health burden, and governance gaps driving Nairobi's recurring floods. Searches across PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, Google Scholar, WHO IRIS, ReliefWeb, and national government portals identified 443 records, of which 68 sources met inclusion criteria across three evidence tiers. Five interconnected environmental determinants were identified: rapid unplanned urbanisation with significant green space loss; illegal encroachment on riparian reserves in violation of Kenya's 60-metre buffer zone mandate; ageing drainage infrastructure; intensifying bimodal rainfall amplified by climate change and El Niño; and upstream land degradation reducing catchment retention. Public health consequences include direct mortality, mass displacement, cholera and diarrhoeal disease outbreaks, vector-borne disease resurgence, and significant mental health burden, all disproportionately affecting informal settlement residents. Persistent governance gaps in land-use enforcement, flood risk assessment, inter-agency coordination, and community inclusion perpetuate this vulnerability. Lastly, 19 evidence-grounded recommendations are proposed across environmental, public health, and governance domains. Recurrent urban flooding in Nairobi is a preventable public health emergency amenable to structural intervention, with findings applicable to urban flood risk management across sub-Saharan African cities facing comparable intersections of rapid urbanisation, governance failure, and climate-change exposure.

Keywords: disaster; urban flooding; Nairobi; public health; climate change; diarrhoeal disease; riparian encroachment; urban planning; waterborne disease; Kenya

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 331-366.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/ac1fpr38

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/213

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/213/225

Suggested citation

Koech, H. (2026). Recurrent Urban Flooding in Nairobi City: A Systematic Review of Environmental Determinants, Public Health Impacts and Policy Gaps. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 331-366. https://doi.org/10.66050/ac1fpr38

Structural Vulnerability Assessment of Residential Buildings to Windstorm Hazard with Impact Analysis on Forest Stands: A Case Study from Vojvodina, Serbia

Authors

Lazar Jeftic
Vladimir Višacki
Srdjan Stojnić
Dejan B. Stojanovic
Lazar Kesić
Bratislav Matović
Saša Orlović

Abstract

This study presents an indicator-based methodology for assessing the structural vulnerability of individual residential buildings to windstorm hazard. The methodology is based on the Household Sector Approach: CIMDEN 2001 procedure, with parameters adapted to assess the vulnerability of an individual house to windstorm events. In the case of a windstorm event, the structural vulnerability of a house is analyzed through five parameters with assigned weights: roof type, roof construction, roof sides, roof material, number of floors, and doors and windows on non-roof sides. The further classification into low, medium, and high classes is based on construction material and building type, recognizing that some are more vulnerable than others. The material classification is based on the analysis of historical windstorm event outcomes and on material and building types used in specific regions of interest (in this work, Vojvodina, an autonomous province in Serbia). The material and building types in this region are similar across the whole Pannonian Basin. During the development of this methodology, the authors also incorporated the indigenous knowledge and experience of structural damage consequences from two recent supercell storm events on 19 and 21 July 2023. that heavily hit the Novi Sad metropolitan area and caused disruption and destruction of forest areas near the Danube River, power lines, and roofs on schools, individual houses, residential buildings, and companies. The methodology was applied to 50 houses in Bačka Palanka and 11 houses in Begeč, both of which were affected by severe supercell windstorms on 19 and 21 July 2023. Building attributes were derived from Google Street View imagery (2014) and field survey (2026). The resulting vulnerability assessment enabled spatial visualization and comparative assessment in a GIS environment. Buildings with lightweight roof structures, unsealed edges, and multiple openings exhibited higher vulnerability scores, whereas massive masonry structures with sealed roof systems showed greater resistance. Direct windstorm impacts on adjacent riparian forest stands were assessed using Sentinel-2 NDVI change detection, identifying 173.87 ha of severe canopy loss. Beyond immediate damage, the study outlines potential cascading socioecological effects in which household recovery needs may increase pressure on forest ecosystem services.

Keywords: hazards; vulnerability assessment; windstorm disaster; hazard; image analysis; forest; buildings

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 305-330.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/nhg50f24

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/211

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/211/224

Suggested citation

Jeftic, L., Višacki, V., Stojnić, S., Stojanovic, D. B., Kesić, L., Matović, B., & Orlović, S. (2026). Structural Vulnerability Assessment of Residential Buildings to Windstorm Hazard with Impact Analysis on Forest Stands: A Case Study from Vojvodina, Serbia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 305-330. https://doi.org/10.66050/nhg50f24

Fire Protection of Religious Buildings in Serbia: Challenges, Risks, and Improvement Measures

Authors

Željko Lazić
Kristijan Đujić
Miraš Milašinović

Abstract

Religious buildings in the Republic of Serbia, particularly Orthodox churches and monasteries, represent a significant component of the nation’s spiritual, cultural, and historical heritage; however, they remain highly susceptible to fire hazards. This study evaluates the current state of fire protection in these structures, with particular attention to risks associated with architectural features, liturgical practices, age, cultural significance, and institutional protection frameworks. The analysis draws upon scientific and professional literature, relevant normative and institutional frameworks, and documented fire incidents in religious buildings. The results demonstrate that fire protection remains fragmented and insufficiently integrated, with technical measures frequently addressed in isolation from legal, organizational, cultural, and financial considerations. Key challenges include outdated electrical systems, the use of open flames during rituals, limited financial resources, inadequate technical documentation, and constraints imposed by cultural heritage protection. The study contends that effective fire protection for religious buildings necessitates a comprehensive, context-sensitive approach that incorporates preventive technical systems, risk assessment, legal compliance, institutional collaboration, and education for clergy and users. This research contributes to the field by emphasizing the need for a systematic, proactive fire risk management framework for religious buildings in Serbia to safeguard both human safety and cultural heritage.

Keywords: disasters; Orthodox churches; fires; fire protection; buildings; cultural heritage

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 293-304.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/0zb8ta95

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/197

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/197/215

Suggested citation

Lazić, Željko, Đujić, K., & Milašinović, M. (2026). Fire Protection of Religious Buildings in Serbia: Challenges, Risks, and Improvement Measures. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 293-304. https://doi.org/10.66050/0zb8ta95

A Comprehensive Assessment of Mining Accident Severity Using Machine Learning Methods

Authors

Irshad Ahmad
Ajay Kumar Gupta

Abstract

The mining sector is recognized as one of the riskiest in the world. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing accident severity. In this study, eight machine learning (ML) methods were systematically evaluated, among which Gradient Boosting and Random Forest emerged as the top-performing models. These ensemble models demonstrated consistently high performance across multiple evaluation metrics (Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, and ROC AUC), highlighting their robustness and reliability in distinguishing between fatal and non-fatal accident outcomes. Across both impurity-based (Gini importance) and robust model-agnostic (SHAP) frameworks, Risk Taking, Age, and Experience emerge as the most influential predictors. Social engagement metrics vary in importance, collectively suggesting that social support systems may play a meaningful role in moderating the severity of accidents. These findings substantiate the utility of machine learning not only for accurate outcome classification but also for elucidating the multifaceted drivers of accident severity, thereby informing targeted intervention and prevention strategies.

Keywords: behavioral factors; mining industry; safety; accidents; machine learning

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 277-292.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18485/khwvt756

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/169

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/169/213

Suggested citation

Ahmad, I., & Gupta, A. K. (2026). A Comprehensive Assessment of Mining Accident Severity Using Machine Learning Methods. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 277-292. https://doi.org/10.18485/khwvt756

Livelihood Vulnerability and Adaptive Strategies Assessment of Farmers Living in Rajapur Municipality, Bardiya, Nepal

Authors

Prajun Chapagain
Ram Asheshwar Mandal
Ajay Bhakta Mathema
Sudip Pandey
Sewak Bhatta

Abstract

Floods in the Terai region of Nepal cause substantial damage to property, increasing household indebtedness, disrupt sustainable livelihoods, and trigger migration. Despite the growing frequency and severity of floods, flood vulnerability remains under-researched.  This study assesses local climatic trends, livelihood vulnerability, and adaptation strategies among farmers in Wards 1, 3, 4, and 7 of Rajapur Municipality. Specifically, it analyzes local climate trends to determine hazard exposure and assesses the livelihood vulnerability of small, medium, and large farmers using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC frameworks. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of adaptation strategies adopted by these farmer groups in responding to climate-related hazards. It had combined 30 years of climate data with empirical evidence from 160 households, four focus group discussions, and five key informant interviews. Results indicated an average annual temperature increase of 0.0084 °C, with seasonally consistent warming trends, except during the post-monsoon period. Annual average rainfall increased by 8.318 mm annually, while seasonal patterns revealed declining winter and post-monsoon precipitation and rising pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall. The data confirmed that the small farmers have the highest levels of vulnerability, followed by medium and large-scale farmers. Adaptation strategies identified as effective included early warning systems, flood shelters, raised tubewells, capacity-building programs, social networks, and river embankments. This finding contributed to a deeper understanding of flood-related livelihood vulnerabilities and adaptive responses in the region, providing evidence-based guidance for interventions and risk-reduction planning.

Keywords: climate change; flood hazard; vulnerability; adaptation; farmer’s livelihoods

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 257-276.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/hk586293

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/173

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/173/214

Suggested citation

Chapagain, P., Mandal, R. A., Mathema, A. B., Pandey, S., & Bhatta, S. (2026). Livelihood Vulnerability and Adaptive Strategies Assessment of Farmers Living in Rajapur Municipality, Bardiya, Nepal. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 257-276. https://doi.org/10.66050/hk586293

Operational Capabilities in Disaster Emergency Management of Bureau of Fire Protection Personnel in Camarines Norte, Philippines

Authors

Mark Anthony R. Pimentel
Maria Cristina C. Azuelo

Abstract

This study assessed the operational capabilities of Bureau of Fire Protection (BFP) personnel in disaster emergency management in the Province of Camarines Norte, Philippines. Preliminary observations and institutional reports indicated several operational constraints that potentially affect the effectiveness of disaster response in the province. Among the most pressing concerns are the limited number of personnel assigned to several municipal fire stations, uneven manpower distribution across municipalities, constraints in the availability and readiness of firefighting and rescue equipment, and the irregular conduct of specialized disaster response and Incident Command System (ICS) trainings. The study assessed the operational capabilities of the Bureau of Fire Protection personnel in Camarines Norte for Disaster Emergency Management from 2024 to 2025. The study determined the profile of the respondents in terms of age, sex, civil status, educational attainment, length of service, and relevant training attended. Also, in terms of operational capabilities in disaster emergency management, it focused only on resource planning, organizational management, responsiveness, and information dissemination, which was crucial to personnel in terms of their level of knowledge at every level, using the researcher’s structured research instrument. The method of data collection was an online survey to gather primary data from the selected respondents. The study was limited only to those personnel who had completed the different levels of the Incident Command System, wherein out of 207 personnel, only 82 had training on the different levels across the twelve municipalities of the province, to gather the needed information during the collection of the data in the form of a questionnaire. The study utilized a descriptive survey research design and employed a pre-tested questionnaire to collect primary data. A total of 82 BFP personnel participated in the study, drawn from 12 municipal fire stations and the BFP Provincial Office in Camarines Norte, including Basud, Daet, Mercedes, San Lorenzo, San Vicente, Talisay, Vinzons, Labo, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga, and Sta. Elena Fire Stations, as well as the Office of the Provincial Fire Marshal. In terms of operational capabilities, BFP personnel were rated “very much capable” in organizational management (M = 4.31), information dissemination (M = 4.40), and responsiveness (M = 4.29). However, resource planning obtained a slightly lower rating of “capable” (M = 4.18), indicating room for improvement. Based on these results, an intervention plan was developed to address identified gaps, particularly in workforce and equipment allocation, equipment maintenance, training frequency, public awareness activities, and governance-related constraints. Across the four operational capability domains, the three lowest-rated indicators were related to: (1) the adequacy and readiness of firefighting and rescue equipment, (2) the frequency and accessibility of specialized disaster response and Incident Command System (ICS) trainings, and (3) the reach and effectiveness of disaster preparedness information dissemination to vulnerable communities. These priority gaps highlight the areas where improvement efforts should be directed most urgently.

Keywords: operational capabilities; disaster emergency management; resource planning; responsiveness; organizational management; information dissemination

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 239-256.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/s34qe772

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/171

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/171/212

Suggested citation

Pimentel, M. A. R., & Azuelo, M. C. C. (2026). Operational Capabilities in Disaster Emergency Management of Bureau of Fire Protection Personnel in Camarines Norte, Philippines. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 239-256. https://doi.org/10.66050/s34qe772

Exploring Non-Structural Flood Risk Management Measures in Haor Areas of Sunamganj, Bangladesh

Authors

Hajera Aktar Aktar
Syeda Ismat Ara Jahan
Md Rakib Mia
Habibur Rahman Masrur

Abstract

This is a qualitative study focusing on non-structural flood management measures to support Boro rice farmers in Tahirpur Upazila in Sunamganj District, a highly flood-prone area. The objective of the study is to analyze existing non-structural flood management practices, including flood forecasting and dissemination processes, as well as farmer education and training. This study found that floods, especially flash floods, are devastating and sorrowful for the farmers in the area, destroying their crops, hard work, and livelihood. They remain far from modern technology-based agricultural and information systems. According to experienced respondents, one of the major problems of non-structured flood risk management is the unavailability of timely upstream information, particularly for adjacent flood-prone areas in India, including Meghalaya, which leads to unexpected flash floods in the study area. Due to insufficient data or information, residents in the study area still rely on perception and indigenous knowledge regarding flood-related issues. This study gathers extensive data through in-depth interviews and Key Informant Interviews (KII). Additionally, other convenient techniques have also been used to collect relevant information.

Keywords: non-structural; flood risk management; boro farmers; haor areas; Bangladesh

Publication details

International Journal of Disaster Risk Management (IJDRM), Vol. 8, No. 1 (2026), pp. 229-238.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66050/yh3z5n98

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/193

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https://internationaljournalofdisasterriskmanagement.com/index.php/Vol1/article/view/193/211

Suggested citation

Aktar, H. A., Jahan, S. I. A., Mia, M. R., & Masrur, H. R. (2026). Exploring Non-Structural Flood Risk Management Measures in Haor Areas of Sunamganj, Bangladesh. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 8(1), 229-238. https://doi.org/10.66050/yh3z5n98