INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (IJDRM)
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SCIENTIFIC-PROFESSIONAL SOCIETY FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT, BELGRADE, THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (IJDRM)
Vol. 1 • № 2
Belgrade, 2019
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TABLE OF CONTENS
Vibhas Sukhwani, Bismark Adu Gyamfi, Ruiyi Zhang, Anwaar Mohammed AlHinai, Rajib Shaw
UNDERSTANDING THE BARRIERS RESTRAINING EFFECTIVE OPERATION
OF FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS 1
Rita Mano, Kirshcenbaum A. Technion, Rapaport Carmit
FARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS: A SOCIAL MEDIA FIT PERSPECTIVE
TO ACCESSING AND DISSEMINATING EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION 19
Jovana Perić, Vladimir M. Cvetković
DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND PHYCOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE OF RISK PERCEPTION FROM DISASTERS CAUSED BY FLOODS:
CASE STUDY BELGRADE 31
Gian Carla S. Rico
SCHOOL-COMMUNITY COLLABORATION: DISASTER PREPAREDNESS TOWARDS BUILDING RESILIENT COMMUNITIES 45
Natasha Goyal
DISASTER GOVERNANCE AND COMMUNITY RESILIENCE:
THE LAW AND THE ROLE OF SDMAs 61
Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.1 UDC: 351.759:627.51
005.334:556
UNDERSTANDING THE BARRIERS RESTRAINING EFFECTIVE OPERATION OF FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
Vibhas Sukhwani1,*, Bismark Adu Gyamfi2, Ruiyi Zhang3, Anwaar Mohammed AlHinai4 and Rajib Shaw5
1 Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University Shonan Fujisawa Campus, 5322 Endo, Fujisawa, Kanagawa Prefecture 252-0882, Japan: vibhas@sfc.keio.ac.jp, baggyamfi@ hotmail.com, zry1030@gmail.com, anwaaralhinai@gmail.com, shaw@sfc.keio.ac.jp.
* Correspondence: Email: vibhas@sfc.keio.ac.jp; Tel.: +81-80-1352-5101. Received: 20 Jun; Accepted: 2 August; Published: 25 December
Abstract: Over the years, a variety of structural and non-structural measures have been employed by the human societies to counter the growing frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Among the various measures, Early Warning Systems (EWSs) have globally been acknowledged as one of the key non-stru- ctural measures for disaster mitigation and preparedness, especially due to the- ir multi-faceted benefits. However, their effective operation during rapid-onset disasters like floods is often disrupted pertaining to a variety of reasons. These manifold reasons have today become critical barriers which restrain the smooth functioning of EWSs. This paper theorizes that the numerous barriers restraining the effective operation of EWSs can primarily be categorized into Knowledge, Te- chnology and Institutional aspects. To support this argument, the study presents an overview of three selected examples of flood disasters in Cameron Highlands (Malaysia), North Kyushu (Japan) and Sri Lanka. Based on published literature, the study lists out key reasons that affected the timely functioning of Flood-EWSs in all the selected cases and explains them in relation to the three theorized cate- gories of barriers. In view of the current limited understanding, this study provi- des a new perspective for understanding the barriers in EWSs and correspondin- gly enhancing their operation during disaster situations.
Keywords: Flood disasters; Structural measures; Non-structural measures; Early Warning Systems; Effective operation
Introduction
Natural disasters and extreme weather events have today become a global reality. In the wake of climate change, the growing frequency and intensity of both slow-onset (like drou- ghts) and rapid-onset disasters (like severe storms) are presenting serious challenges to hu-
man societies around the world. It is important to note that flood events (rapid-onset disa- ster) are reported to be the most frequent and widespread of all-natural disasters (WMO, 2013; Jongman et al., 2018). Floods generally refer to the overflow of water due to a com- bination of meteorological and hydrological extremes that submerge the usually dry lands. Strikingly, flood events accounted for more than forty percent of all weather-related disasters between 1995 and 2015 (UNISDR, 2015). During this period, more than 3000 flood events affected around 2.3 billion people around the world (95% of them live in Asia). Jongman et al. (2018) underlined that between 1980 and 2016, the total direct damages from flood disasters exceeded $1.6 trillion and at least 225,000 people lost their lives. Although flood disasters are increasing around the world, their share in Asian countries cannot be overlooked as it continues to be the world’s most disaster-prone region (Yi, 2017). Few selected Asian coun- tries like Japan, India, Sri Lanka etc. which are customarily prone to floods, have recently experienced their worst flooding in decades. A recent report by Asian Development Bank (ADB, 2017) pointed that increasingly severe weather triggered by climate change is further putting millions of people at risk, particularly the poorest and marginalized ones, across the rapidly developing countries of southern Asia. The 1.5 °C special report on the impacts of global warming developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) has also predicted a significant increase of extreme rainfalls in the next few decades which is projected to further worsen the flooding situation in Asia.
Although, it is not possible to control the flood disasters entirely, the resultant damages can be minimized through a range of flood protection and management measures, which are primarily categorized into structural (hard) or non-structural (soft) measures. The ‘hard’ structural measures include the construction of physical structures to reduce or avoid po- tential impacts of flood hazards like dikes, dams and flood control reservoirs and improving drainage channel capacity. On the other hand, ‘soft’ non-structural measures refer to the application of knowledge, laws or policies to reduce flood risks and its impacts like watershed management, land use regulations, building codes and standards, economic instruments, flo- od forecast warning systems etc. (UNISDR, 2017; Acosta-Coll et al., 2018). While financial limitations constrain the implementation of large-scale structural measures for flood prepa- redness and management in low- and middle-income countries, non-structural measures like Early Warning systems (EWSs) have proved to be extremely efficient and cost-effective in curbing the negative impacts of flood disasters like economic losses, loss of human lives and damage to property (UNEP, 2012). EWSs serve for providing relevant and timely informati- on about the forthcoming flood disasters to the communities at risk, which allows them to make risk-informed decisions and take necessary actions like evacuation before the disaster strikes. Numerous studies (Bouwer et al., 2014; Acosta-Coll et al., 2018) have pointed that EWSs provide multi-faceted benefits despite their minimal costs, and therefore have been successfully employed around the world in a diverse range of developed and developing co- untries (IOC, 2009; Linham & Nicholls, 2010).
GOI (n.d.) underlined that since the early development of EWSs in 1980’s, they have been used for different types of hazards like technological, hydrological, meteorological etc. Howe- ver, EWSs gained prominence at global level only in January 2005, after it was identified as one of the key priorities in ‘Hyogo Framework for Action’ (HFA) which was adopted by 168 countries during the Second World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Japan. The- reafter, EWSs have been incorporated as an integral component of disaster risk management by local and national governments around the world.
GDPC (2017) explained that the word ‘system’ in EWSs refers to the interplay between an array of sub-systems (elements) aimed at facilitating disaster risk communication and quick response to protect those in need. EWSs basically comprise of four key elements namely
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risk knowledge, monitoring and warning, dissemination and communication, and response capability, where each part is required to function efficiently for the system to be successful. Noticeably, the technological advancements over the years have improved the flood monito- ring and forecasting by helping simulate flood situations and predicting possible fluctuations through various computer programs and modelling techniques. However, several researchers (Glantz, 2003; Tompkins et al., 2005; Linham & Nicholls, 2010) have repeatedly stressed that the prediction aspects of EWSs are not useful until they are translated into simplified warning messages that the target communities can understand and unless the information provides adequate lead time for the communities to take necessary actions. Various studies have also highlighted that the inability to transmit the accurate disaster information in a timely manner to the vulnerable communities has limited the effectiveness of EWSs as a whole, and this is the key reason that the communication and dissemination of risk information are the said to be the weakest of links of EWSs (United Nations, 2006; IFRC, 2009; Molinari et al., 2013).
A considerable amount of literature has been published on understanding EWSs and im- proving their effectiveness. However, majority of these studies have focused on improving the efficiency of individual sub-systems rather than enhancing the overall functioning of EWSs. Unlike the current research trends, this paper tries to understand the overall functioning of EWSs during flood disasters and identify the key barriers that restrain their effective ope- ration in disaster situations. Notably, the term ‘effective operation’ of EWSs throughout this paper mainly relates with the timely flow of disaster information from scientific communities to the vulnerable communities. This study argues that the plentiful barriers that limit the operation of EWSs during disaster situations can primarily be categorized into Knowledge, Institutional and Technology aspects. To validate this argument, a case study-based approach is been used wherein the key issues that restricted the functioning of EWSs in specific flood disasters are discussed. Three different case study examples from Asia namely North Kyushu (Japan), Cameron Highlands (Malaysia) and Sri Lanka are been investigated in this study. These selected examples represent typical cases of flood disasters wherein the EWSs failed to achieve their purpose of providing timely information to vulnerable communities and stimulating necessary action. Notably, this research follows an interpretative approach and is primarily based on published literature. The study highlights the variety of reasons that affected the smooth operation of EWSs in selected cases and explains them in relation to the three stated categories of barriers. Towards the end, the study derives important lessons from all the case studies and puts forward the key considerations for systematically enhancing the effectiveness of EWSs.
Early Warning Systems and their significance in flood disaster management
Early Warning Systems (EWSs) are defined as ‘an integrated system of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness acti- vities systems and processes that enables individuals, communities, governments, businesses and others to take timely action to reduce disaster risks in advance of hazardous events’ (UNISDR, 2017). The key attributes of EWSs in flood disaster management entail monitoring the dynamics of flood disasters, simulating their future scenarios, communicating and dis- seminating warnings and putting in place the needed mechanisms to reduce their impacts. As discussed in the previous section, EWSs include four interrelated key elements (Figure 1):
(1) Risk knowledge: systematic collection of data and disaster risk assessments; (2) Monitoring and Warning: detection, analysis and forecasting of the hazards and possible consequences;
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Dissemination and communication: timely, accurate and actionable warnings and asso- ciated information on likelihood and impact; and (4) Response capability: preparedness at all levels to respond to the warnings received. Most importantly, each of the four components essentially need to be coordinated across different sectors at multiple levels for the EWSs to work effectively. Failure in any single component or a lack of coordination across them could possibly lead to the failure of the whole system (Kundzewicz, 2013; Molinari et al., 2013).
Figure 1. Four key elements (sub-systems) of EWSs (Image Source: Author)
Flood-EWSs empower the flood prone communities to proactively respond to imminent threats by providing a timely prediction of the scale or magnitude, duration and likely dama- ges of the forthcoming flood disaster at a particular location and time (Travis, 2011). The flo- od forecasting is mainly based on the data collected from sensors placed at strategic locations in local water basins (rivers, lakes) or flood defences (dikes, dams, embankments). The tech- nological advancements over the years have further enhanced the effectiveness of EWSs in providing accurate predictions from likely days to hours of flooding (Georgaka et al., 2012).
Blöschl et al. (2015) outlined that flood disasters differ based on the processes that produ- ce them like riverine floods (triggered by heavy rainfall), coastal floods (triggered by strong winds and high tides), pluvial and ground water floods, as well as by artificial system failures (like failure of levees and dams). Some of the flooding events occur slowly allowing adequate lead time to prepare and suitably respond, while others (e.g. flash floods) can develop quic- kly within a short duration. Fujita & Shaw (2019) explained that the flood phenomena and the corresponding level of destruction also vary in different countries because of the diffe- rent topography. The resulting impacts can also be widespread from small neighborhood or community level to entire river basins, causing mass relocation of people, property damage, infrastructure damage, outbreak of health risks etc. Undeniably, there are numerous factors ranging from types of floods, target communities, expected range and scale of flooding etc. that need to be considered for flood disaster management in different contextual settings. Correspondingly, the role and functioning of EWSs also varies depending on the social (like age groups, gender), economic (like income levels) and environmental settings (prone to dam floods, riverine floods etc.) in different areas. Learning from Jha et al. (2012) and GDPC (2017), the key functions of EWSs specifically for managing flood disasters can be explained under the umbrella of four key elements as below:
Risk Knowledge: Establishing baseline understanding of low-lying vulnerable areas, knowledge of areas with inappropriate drainage capacities, socio-economic characteristics of communities at risk, determined priorities set at regional level.
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Monitoring and Warning: Constant monitoring and assessment of rainfall patterns and water levels in the surrounding water bodies like dams, lakes, rivers and sea, Constant upda- ting of the expected criticalities to the concerned stakeholders.
Dissemination and Communication: Communicating the rainfall and flood-based in- formation to all the relevant stakeholders in an easy to understand language via robust means of communication and ensuring effectual transfer of real-time information to the general public at all stages of disaster.
Response Capability: Enhancing the community response capabilities at different levels and ensuring operationalization of necessary risk reduction measures (evacuation, asset mo- vement etc.) once the inundation trends are spotted and announced.
Barriers restraining effective operation of Flood-EWSs
EWSs are theoretically regarded as linear models aimed at communicating information from scientific agencies to target communities (Foster, 1980), however Garcia & Fearnley (2012) emphasized that in practice they are highly complex due to variations in scale, onset, frequency, hazard types and the economic, political and social contexts where they operate. As explained in the previous section, the roles and function of different elements of EWSs are theoretically well established, however their effectiveness is completely reliant on the co- ordinated functioning of all the actors involved in the four key elements and the failure in even a single link could render the overall system performance unsatisfactory. From risk monitoring to risk communication, there are multiple institutions and organizations like go- vernments, meteorological organizations, hydrological departments, local communities etc. involved in different phases of information flow, which need to collaborate, coordinate and ensure information sharing at all levels. While timely communication of flood warnings to all relevant stakeholders is one part, EWSs cannot be deemed effective until they persuade community members to take adequate actions against the impending flood disasters.
Glantz (2003) specified that EWSs are often interrupted at various nodes in the flow of warning messages from scientific agencies to target communities. Thereafter, numerous barriers interrupting the flow of disaster information have been identified in the internatio- nal scientific literature (Glantz, 2003; ISDR, 2006; UNEP, 2012; Kundzewicz, 2013; Ibrahim
& Kruczkiewicz, 2016), however the EWSs are still alleged to be unbalanced with respect to the development of its four key elements (Molinari et al., 2013). Garcia and Fearnley (2012) pointed that the current academic research on EWSs is mostly fragmented and is primarily based on theoretical approaches (United Nations, 2006) rather than practical applications (Zschau & Kuppers, 2003). Garcia and Fearnley (2012) further clarified that the key issue with the current scientific research is that, a discrete approach is used for the development of four key elements (sub-systems) of EWSs with limited consideration to the links between them. Various United Nation agencies have also stressed that the integrated EWSs are the most economical, efficient and successful means for disaster risk reduction (UNISDR, 2006; United Nations, 2006; IFRC, 2009). Evidently, the scientific communities are continually en- gaged in enhancing the efficiency of EWSs, however their efforts are alleged to be multi-dire- ctional and there is no standardised methodical approach to achieve the purpose.
In view of the identified concerns, this viewpoint theorizes that the plentiful barriers constraining the efficiency of EWSs can primarily be classified into three categories namely Knowledge, Technology and Institutional (Figure 2).
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Figure 2. Different types of barriers in Flood-EWSs (Image Source: Author)
Knowledge: The knowledge aspect refers to the awareness level of scientific agencies, go- vernment bodies and target communities pertaining to forthcoming flood risks, technologi- cal features of EWSs, level of vulnerability etc.
Technology: The technology aspect entails the monitoring and forecasting techniques and the warning communication systems. It mainly relates to accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting and information dissemination to the communities at risk.
Institutional: The Institutional aspect ensures the overall flow of timely information from scientific agencies to the target communities and stimulating necessary actions for flo- od management. Both the aspects of Knowledge and Technology essentially depend on In- stitutional aspect.
While previous studies have attempted to determine the key barriers in EWSs under the umbrella of different sub-systems, this study underlines that these wide-ranging barriers primarily fall within these three stated categories. Table 1 below explains some of the well- known issues in different elements of EWSs with reference to the three aspects of Knowledge, Technology and Institutional. It can be observed that the factors of Knowledge, Technology and Institutions are interlinked and collectively drive the operations of various sub-systems of EWSs. While the current subsystem-based approach to overcome the barriers in EWSs is been contested, this study suggests that the diverse barriers in EWSs could also be addressed by focussing on the Knowledge, Technology and Institutional aspects.
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Table 1. Classifying selected key issues in different elements of EWSs under the umbrella of Knowledge, Technology and Institutional aspects (Source-Author)
S.No.
Name of elements
Knowledge
Technology
Institutional
1
Risk Knowledge
Varied risk inter- pretation
Sampling errors
Top-down approach
2
Monitoring and Warning
Data complexities
Inaccurate forecast- ing
Stringent regulations
3
Dissemination and Communication
Language of com- munication
Poor communication technology
Unclear organizational arrangement
4
Response capability
Lack of education
& awareness
Information storage
& accessibility
Poor continency plan- ning
Case Study Examples
This section presents an overview of three different case study examples of flood disasters from three different countries in Asia namely Malaysia, Japan and Sri Lanka. It is impor- tant to note that all three countries are highly prone to floods and EWSs play an important role in flood preparedness and management. This study mainly seeks to understand the key barriers that interrupted the effective operation of EWSs in respective cases without making any comparison between them. The readers should bear in mind that this study is mainly ba- sed on the interpretations drawn from the published literature, and due to practical constra- ints, it does not provide a comprehensive review of selected case studies. For all three cases, the study methodically explains details of the concerned flood disaster, its causes, resultant damages and characteristics of EWSs during the flood disasters. Based on these details, the study analyses the factors that restrained the effective operation of EWSs in selected cases.
Flash Flood Disaster in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia (October 2013)
Details of flood disaster, Cause and Resultant damages
Cameron Highlands is a district in Pahang, Malaysia. On 23rd October 2013, Sungai Ber- tam (the main river flowing through Cameron Highlands) overflowed after the excess release of water from the Sultan Abu Bakar Dam causing flash floods in Cameron Highlands. The floods caused heavy property damage as 80 houses were swept away and 3 people lost their lives (The Malaysian Insider, 2013; Khalid et al., 2015).
Operation of EWSs during the flood disaster
Flood risk communication provided by Sultan Abu Bakar Dam is based on a siren system which alerts the local community whenever the dam authorities wanted to release water. Notably, the same siren system had been exercised for the past 20 years and there was no difference between the siren signals for normal water release and the emergency signal for a flash flood. On the day of flood disaster, the siren system had been operating continually since 9 pm (siren signal for normal water release). At 12 midnight on the same day, the dam
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authorities switched on emergency signal for flash flood following the release of more water than usual. However, the local communities could not differentiate between the normal and emergency siren signals and this restrained their response capability to the forthcoming flo- od disaster (Khalid et al., 2015).
Key issues identified in operation of EWSs
The siren systems used by the dam authorities for communicating risk information to the vulnerable communities were reported to be confusing as there was no clear distinction between normal and emergency warning. The normal warning was usually issued following the release of dam water and the emergency warning corresponded with the overflow of wa- ter from the dam. Resultantly, the flood victims could not recognize the scale and magnitude of forthcoming flood disaster although the flood-EWSs were in operation.
The disaster management mechanism in Malaysia is based on Standard Operating Pro- cedures determined by the National Security Council (NSC) Directive No.20 and Fixed Ope- rating Regulations (Chan, 2012; Khalid & Shafiai, 2015). The directive outlines the roles and responsibilities of the all concerned agencies involved in handling disasters at different levels in Malaysia. Khalid et al. (2015) highlighted that in case of flash flood disaster in Cameron Highlands, the dam authorities failed to follow exactly all conditions of the Fixed Operating Regulations as the local communities were not sufficiently informed about the possibility of facing flash floods.
Regional flood disaster in North Kyushu, Japan (July, 2017)
Details of flood disaster, Cause and Resultant damages
Kyushu is the southwestern most of Japan’s four main islands and North Kyushu is one of its subregions. On 5th and 6th July 2017, North Kyushu experienced torrential rains followed by floods and landslides. Many areas within North Kyushu experienced heavy rainfall that surpassed the normal monthly rainfall of July in just two days, breaking all previous records. The cities of Asakura, Fukuoka, Hita and Oita recorded new 24-hour rainfall high as the he- avy rain broke previous records. This record rainfall caused huge loss of lives (37 deaths) and serious property damage (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2017a; Cabinet Office, 2017).
Operation of EWSs during the flood disaster
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) disseminates flood related warnings and information to vulnerable communities via various channels like media organizations, cellular carriers, television, radio etc. through various routes such as prefectures, police and fire departments. The warnings are currently standardized into three levels namely Caution, Warning and Emergency Warning) (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2013; Fujita & Shaw, 2019). The issu- ance of different levels of warning corresponds with set standards of rainfall like emergency warning (highest level) is issued when the intensity of observed rainfall is once in every few decades.
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Table 2 below shows the volume of recorded rainfall in Asakura city in Fukuoka Prefe- cture at different time intervals on 5th July 2017. As seen in table 2, the rainfall record of 1 hour (129.5 mm at 15:38) and 3 hour record (261.0 mm at 15:40) surpassed in a very short duration and both hit the highest in history, but JMA issued Emergency Warning for this pre- fecture at 17:51 i.e. 131 minutes later. Reports suggest that the interval between baselines of ‘Warning’ (issued at 13:14 & 14:03) and ‘Emergency Warning’ (17:51) was so big that severe loss happened before the Emergency Warning was issued.
Table 2. Timeline of rainfall records and Emergency Warning in Asakura on 5th July, 2017 (Source: Japan Meteorological Agency, 2017a)
Time
Rainfall record at Asakura, Fukuoka Prefecture
15:38
Rainfall record of maximum in 1 hour : 129.5 mm
15:40
Rainfall record of maximum in 3 hour : 261.0 mm
17:51
JMA issued Emergency Warning in parts of Fukuoka Pre.
Key issues identified in operation of EWSs
The study finds that although the EWSs are well established in Japan, the prediction standards associated with specific amount of rainfall and time slabs restrain the effectiveness of dissemination and communication. The time slabs of 1-hour, 3-hour, 24-hour and 72-hour potentially limit the risk assessment and communication to fixed time limits and severe los- ses could occur before the rainfall intensity reaches a specific time slab as happened in case of Asakura.
During the Minister Press Conference on July 20th 2017, JMA clarified that the standard procedures were followed for releasing warnings during the North Kyushu floods and the agency systematically chose the timing for issuing the warning because at the early stage of the records becoming radical it had not been a wide scope issue yet (Japan Meteorological Agency, 2017b). Based on this justification of JMA, it could be inferred that the regulatory standards used for communicating early warnings in Japan do not allow for immediate acti- ons even if the disaster situation is worsening.
Regional flood disaster Sri Lanka (May 2017)
Details of flood disaster, Cause and Resultant damages
Sri Lanka is an island country in South Asia prone to recurrent flooding. During May 2017, the country experienced severe flooding and landslides which were caused by a heavy southwest monsoon (starting from 18th-19th May). The flooding got worsened after the onset of the precursor system to Cyclone Mora. A total of 15 districts around the country were affected by the floods which killed at least 212 people, affected more than 683,831 people and caused severe losses of property according to the Disaster Management Centre (DMC). Few of the worst hit areas like Matara District, Ratnapura District, Kalutara District and Galle District received about 300 mm – 500 mm of heavy rain in a 24-hour period by 25th May (IOM, 2017; PDNA, 2017).
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Operation of EWSs during the flood disaster
Disaster Management Centre (DMC) in Sri Lanka is the main government agency respon- sible for coordinating early warnings and disaster preparedness. Various technical agencies in Sri Lanka monitor different hazards and provide early warning messages to DMC which ensures its proper dissemination to the vulnerable communities through various means like the Police and military communication systems, radios, early warning towers, media and the telephone etc. (Lanka Jalani, 2015). In the case of 2017 floods, DMC reportedly did not broadcast any early warnings or alerts until the storm arrived near communities at risk. The main reason behind was the lack of information sharing from concerned technical agencies namely the Irrigation Department (flood information) and the National Building Resear- ch Organization (NBRO) (landslides related information) (PDNA, 2017). After the disaster spread-out, all the three agencies namely DMC, NBRO and the Irrigation Department began sending out mass text messages about the disaster to vulnerable communities in an informal manner. Further, the Meteorological Department, which is responsible for weather foreca- sting, projected for a normal amount of monsoon rain about 150 mm on 25th May. Howe- ver, the rainfall predictions proved incorrect as more than three times the prediction of rain (approximately 550 mm) fell in some areas between 9 pm on 25th May and 5 am on 26th May (Perera, 2017).
Key issues identified in operation of EWSs
Based on the above information, it is evident that the hierarchical institutional arrange- ments in Sri Lanka constrained the flow of disaster information. Although DMC is respon- sible for coordinating early warnings, it is completely dependent on other technical agencies for disaster-related information.
The poor weather forecast by the Meteorological Department indicate serious shortco- mings in monitoring and forecasting technologies in Sri Lanka.
Discussion
The three selected case study examples represent different contexts of flooding in three di- fferent countries wherein the level of hazards, the technological capabilities, the institutional arrangements etc. are completely different. Table 3 summarizes the key issues and identified barriers in all selected cases. Noticeably, the failure of EWSs operations in the three selected cases occurred due to a variety of reasons, however the study demonstrates that they all fall within the three stated categories of Knowledge, Technology and Institutional (Table 3). It is also important to note that there were different weak links in all the cases that restrained the overall operation of EWSs. For the case of Cameron Highlands (Malaysia), the flood prediction and forecasting were accurate however the dissemination and communication of risk was not appropriate. In the case of North Kyushu (Japan), the risk communication and dissemination through set levels of warning was done, however the stringent procedures restricted the timely communication. Lastly, in the case of Sri Lanka, the dissemination and communication element of EWSs proved ineffective primarily because of the technology and institutional barriers.
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Table 3. Key issues and barriers identified in EWSs of three selected cases (Source: Author)
Case Study Area
Key issues in EWSs
(type of barrier)
Weak element of EWSs
Identified Barriers
Cameron Is- lands, Malay- sia
(Knowledge)
Knowledge & Institutional
North Ky- ushu, Japan
Knowledge & Institutional
Sri Lanka
Knowledge, Institutional & Technology
The siren system was confusing
The local communities were not aware (Knowledge & Institutional)
Dissemination & communication
Risk Knowledge
The warnings were issued based on rainfall intensity in standard time-slabs (Knowledge)
Emergency Warning was delayed due to the standard procedures (Institutional)
Monitoring & Warn- ing
Dissemination & communication
The flow of disaster information was interrupted (Knowledge & In- stitutional)
The weather forecasting technolo- gy was poor (Technology)
Dissemination & communication
Monitoring & Warn- ing
* The weak elements of EWSs shown in the table correspond to the four key elements of EWSs (Section 2).
The types of barriers correspond with the three broad categories of barriers established in the Section 3.
Referring to the diverse barriers to Flood-EWSs observed from the three examples, the study suggests that there are lessons to be learned from every flood disaster and it is impor- tant to use them in preparing for the future events. The importance of timely warnings and public recognizability of warnings is one of the key lessons from all the cases. Further, the regulatory prediction standards for EWSs need to be constantly upgraded in consideration with the changing climatic conditions and the characteristics of local communities. It is also important to establish a clear distinction between different types of flood warnings such that the target communities can correctly recognize the forthcoming situation and suitably res- pond to it. Additionally, this study lists out key factors to be considered for overcoming the barriers in three identified categories of Knowledge, Technology and Institutional aspect:
Knowledge barriers
Referring to the selected case study examples, the poor risk knowledge, the varied risk interpretations, the lack of awareness and trust in local communities are some of the key barriers in Knowledge aspect. The study suggests that these implicit knowledge issues need more recognition in the institutional arrangements of EWSs such as the community percep- tion and the language used for information dissemination. Cvetković, V. M. (2019) also de- monstrated that disaster risk is differently perceived by various members of the community depending on the factors like age, income level etc. The warning messages should therefore be announced in a non-technical language in consideration with the local jargon, to ensure its healthy reception by different user communities. It is also important to ensure that the lo- cal communities are aware of the technologies employed for risk communication to stimulate necessary actions during disaster situations. Further, the local communities should be made continually informed about the type, source, probability of flooding and the exposed assets to enhance their trust on EWSs.
Technology barriers
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The poor and inaccurate weather forecasting (as in case of Sri Lanka), over-reliance on technology (as in case of Malaysia), multiple means of communication used for disaster risk communication are some of the key technology barriers in EWSs. While the element of un- certainty binds the wide-ranging controls of EWSs at every stage, its efficiency is highly de- pendent on the accurate predictions and adequate lead time. Correspondingly, there is need for continuous testing of forecasting parameters to address the uncertainties that could po- ssibly restrict the operation of EWSs (as happened in case of Sri Lanka). Further, the regular physical testing of equipment along with conducting drill exercises is a prerequisite to ensure disaster preparedness.
Institutional barriers
The Institutional aspect is found to be the most critical component that lays the founda- tion for all the elements of EWSs from Risk knowledge to Response capability. The unclear organizational arrangement, top-down approach, poor contingency planning etc. in Sri Lan- ka case, stringent regulations in North Kyushu case and poor response capability in Cameron Highlands are some of the examples of Institutional barriers. The study suggests that the overall flow of disaster information from scientific agencies to communities at risks chara- cteristically depends on the institutional arrangements. In the absence of proper institutional structures, the desired purpose of EWSs could never be achieved. There is need to ensure effective and robust communication networks at all levels. Likewise, the accountability and responsibility of all stakeholders should be outlined. Lastly, the agencies concerned with EWSs should regularly engage in scenario making and should uphold emergency prepared- ness plans for different situations.
Finally, the study suggests that although technology advancements may facilitate for accu- rate and timely predictions of flood disasters, the institutional and knowledge aspects need to be improved for ensuring smooth flow and appropriate reception of information by local communities. To achieve that, there is genuine need for methodically linking the aspects of technology, institutions and knowledge in consideration with the target communities as any kind of weak links shall directly restrain the effectiveness of the EWSs which might lead to devastating outcomes.
Conclusion
With changing climate, more severe and frequent flooding events are expected around the world. While the levels of vulnerability differ around the world, the people in low income countries are much more prone to negative flood impacts than those living in high-income countries (Jongman et al., 2015). Further, the high-income countries are better placed in res- ponding to flood disasters through both structural and non-structural measures, however the developing countries with limited resources are highly constrained and non-structural mea- sures like EWSs shall play an increasingly critical role in flood preparedness. The comprehen- sive understanding of Flood-EWSs and their major shortcomings is therefore very important to improve their functioning. While the contemporary research emphasizes on exploring further the interrelationships between sub-systems of EWSs, there is need for renewed atten- tion towards overcoming the barriers that are constantly restraining the combined opera- tions of different sub-systems in critical situations. Based on the three selected case study examples from three different countries in Asia, the study highlighted that the Flood-EWSs are prone to common inadequacies in the stated categories of ‘Knowledge’, ‘Institutional’ and ‘Technology’. While significant progress has been made in improving flood forecasting and monitoring technology, the timely flow of information from scientific agencies to target com-
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munities is often interrupted due to various reasons that mainly fall within the Knowledge and Institutional aspects. While improved monitoring and forecasting technology is essential to continually monitor the changing risk scenario, it is equally important to ensure that the institutional structures and risk knowledge are developed to enhance effectiveness of EWSs.
This viewpoint stresses on the ‘shift in thinking’ from isolated subsystem-based approach to a more holistic approach, which addresses the community characteristics and institutional arrangements for smoother flow of information between scientific agencies and vulnerable communities. Through this review, it was explained that there is strong need to explore furt- her the interrelationships between individual sub-systems of EWSs because they are mul- tifaceted and cannot be modelled in a linear manner. Further research on understanding location specific features, technology and institutional concerns can help make effective use of evolving technologies in different contexts. The future scope of this research entails esta- blishing contextual understanding in different regions and streamlining the risk communi- cation methods which could cater to the varied communities in different parts of the world.
Author Contributions: V.S. was responsible for the overall coordination among the au- thors, for the body and flow of the paper, and for all editing. He has provided major inputs in all the chapters. B.A.G. has provided inputs related to the research methodology and has worked on chapter 1 and 3. R.Z. and A.M.A. have mainly worked on the chapter 4. R.S. has provided overall coordination and guidance for the structure, flow and focus of the paper.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Acknowledgements: The first author is thankful to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan for the scholarship. The second author is thankful to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (ABE initiative) for the scholarship. All the authors sincerely acknowledge the support received from the ‘Disaster Resilience and Sustainable Development’ Program of Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio Uni- versity, Japan in conducting this study.
Conflicts of Interest: ‘The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.’
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Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.2 UDC: 351.759:550.34
005.57:550.343
550.348.436
EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS:
A SOCIAL MEDIA FIT PERSPECTIVE TO ACCESSING AND DISSEMINATING EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION
Rita Mano1, Kirshcenbaum, A. Technion2, Rapaport, C.3
1 Department of Human Services, University of Haifa; ritamano@research.haifa.ac.il
2 Polytechnic Institute, Israel; avik@techcunix.haifa.ac.il
3 Institute for the management of disaster, rapaport@gmail.com
Received: 26 April; Accepted: 25 May; Published: 25 December
Abstract: The field of risk communications encompasses the bulk of the scientific literature on preparedness by focusing on various means and measures used by at-risk populations, to receive, access and utilize information that acts as both a warning and a cue for disaster preparation. As noted, one area where sound scientific evidence is lacking is that of SM and its impact on disaster behaviors, particularly with respect to earthquakes, and on how information through this media can be used to facilitate preparedness behaviors. Building on a pool of Israeli research evidence on earthquakes that includes thorough analysis of past studies on risk communications and earthquake behaviors across the globe, we introduce the “social media fir” model that considers a multi-level conceptual- ization of the use of social media for earthquake preparedness. We consider the extent that individual-level use of SM on the one hand (Kirshcenbaum, , 2017; Mano 2014b; Mano 2014c) and institutional-level use on the other (Mano, 2014a) shape earthquake awareness and preparedness.
Introduction
Strong earthquakes have occurred in the region every 80-100 years and minor to major seismic activity is likely to recur (Avni, 1999; Begin, 2005; Salamon, 2005). Past research has made it clear that increasing the population’s awareness and preparedness for these future earthquakes is essential in preventing human and property loss. This same research has noted that a key component in achieving this goal is effective communications (Mileti & Sorensen, 1990). As in other crisis-related events, however, the difficulty lies in discrepancies between competing types of information sources, means of information distribution, trust in the source and impact on changing behaviors (Kirschenbaum et al., 2017). Here is where social media come into play. Social media have the potential to increase exposure to relevant in- formation and effectively prepare information channels appropriate for various populations
(Theodoreskou et al., 2014). This potential has been recently noted for managing disasters (Van De Walle & Turoff, 2007), especially search and rescue operations and evacuations, but with little, if any, grounded evidence to support its effectiveness. There is even less evidence of the effect of social media as an instrument for disseminating earthquake information, and particularly its potential in shaping attitudes and behaviors related to earthquake prepared- ness and recovery.
Concurrently, public and financial institutions quickly recognized the potential of social media in disseminating information and engaging users in technology-based services and products. This potential could be harnessed to increase people’s motivation to share infor- mation, opinions and experiences (Guadagno et al., 2013) and hence affect individuals’ atti- tudes, predispositions and behaviors (Berger & Milkman, 2012; Mano, 2014b). The success of such media-based marketing in business settings (Kalus & Nguyen, 2013; Maity, 2014) has only recently extended into the area of disaster management (Kirschenbaum & Rapaport, 2014; Rapaport & Kirschenbaum, 2008), but there has been practically no empirical assess- ment of the level of social media use in accessing earthquake information and in promoting earthquake preparedness. This assessment void may stem from a failure to address the po- tential of a “dialogue” between individuals and formal and informal institutions in utilizing social media (hereinafter SM) -Twitter (Micro blogging); Facebook (Social networking); You- Tube (Content communities); Virtual Social Worlds and Mobile Applications- to promote information dissemination for earthquake preparedness. Indeed, today, advances in mobile communications and media distribution have opened a new window of opportunity to attain this goal with respect to information (Abdulah & Ward, 2016).
Here we introduce the “Social media fit” model to understand and take advantage of SM as a tool to enhance earthquake preparation. We propose to examine the link between SM and a) individual/household access to and b) institutional dissemination of earthquake infor- mation. At the individual or micro level, we suggest that the extent and frequency with which individuals use SM to access earthquake information form attitudes regarding earthquake preparedness. At the institutional or macro level, we suggest that formal (public) and infor- mal (nonprofit) institutions extent, frequency and diversity of SM use will affect the dissemi- nation of earthquake information. As a result we need to evaluate the “fit” between individual access to (micro) and institutional dissemination use of (macro) SM and the effect of this fit on earthquake preparedness.
Background
The internet has led to the advent of several technological revolutions in the information age, constituting a major part of Cyber-society (Castells, 1978) and changing the way people connect with each other. Unfortunately, traditional collaborative models of emergency man- agement include face-to-face meetings and (table top) exercises where organizations accu- mulate information relevant to their own needs in the decision-making process. As a result, little inter-departmental exchange of information occurs, resulting in minimal sharing and low levels of the preparedness (Turoff et al., 2011) needed to cope effectively and efficiently with the emerging issues arising during the actual event.
The lack of a “fit” perspective is evident in a variety of models dealing with disaster man- agement, such as the Information Likelihood model (Petty & Cacioppo, 1986) that focuses on risk-related messages distributed by formal agencies, the Protective Action Decision model (Lindell & Perry, 2012) that focuses on the decision-making stages in facing an imminent or future threat (Alexander, 2014), and the Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication model
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(Reynolds & Seeger, 2005). These models fail to take into account are the emergent social networks generated among people, where they meet and converse with friends, family and neighbors. Such socially generated networks not only provide information but also act as conduits for its distribution. As a result, the role that SM may play in this process may con- stitute a considerable step towards understanding why and how individuals are most likely to access information and be prepared for or possibly susceptible to the outcomes of seismic activity.
Social media (hereinafter SM) is defined as “web-based services that allow individuals to construct a public or semi-public profile within a bounded system, articulate a list of other users with whom they share a connection, and use the virtual networks made by others with- in the system” (Boyd & Ellison, 2007:211). In particular Social networks (hereinafter SNS) op- erating within SM are important because “….networked communication platform in which participants have uniquely identifiable profiles consisting of user-supplied content, content provided by other users, and/or system-provided data that can be viewed by others and can consume, produce, and/or interact with streams of user-generated content provided on vir- tual platforms” (Ellison & Boyd, 2013:158).
Indeed, since 2003 when LinkedIn and Friendster were introduced, the use of SM and SNS has increased constantly, and by late 2016 Facebook alone had already exceeded 1.86 billion users (Zheng, 2014) as a central means of instigating the efficient generation, dissemina- tion, sharing and editing/refining of information (Constantinides & Fountain, 2008; Pi et al., 2013), especially among the younger age groups (Prybutok & Ryan, 2015). Over 1.7 billion active users spend more than 700 billion minutes per month using Facebook (Statistic Brain, 2014). More recently, Pew Center reports (2016) provide evidence that roughly eight out of ten online Americans (79%) now use Facebook, a 7 percentage point increase from a survey conducted at a similar point in 2015. Some 62% of online adults ages 65 and older now use Facebook, a 14-point increase from the 48% who reported doing so in 2015. In addition, women continue to use Facebook at somewhat higher rates than men: 83% of female internet users and 75% of male internet users are Facebook adopters. These networks are not exclu- sively based on individuals’ socioeconomic and attitudinal predispositions.
Evidence indicates that the accelerated use of both SM and SNS (Pi et al., 2013) has in- creased the motivation to share information, opinions and experiences (Hung & Cheng, Guadagno, Rempala, Murphy, & Okdie, 2013, 2012) and has affected individuals’ attitudes, predispositions (Mesch et al., 2012) and behaviors (Mano, 2014a; 2014c). Not surprisingly, SM have the ability to provide an influential conduit with the potential to serve as a powerful instrument to increase earthquake information access and earthquake preparedness (Kir- shenbaum et al. 2017). Considering that earthquakes occur without warning, we argue that building such interactions and virtual relationships before the event is essential in lowering the risks of ambiguity, increasing the levels of awareness and preparedness and shaping the proper predispositions to comply with warnings (Kirschenbaum & Rapaport, 2009).
Individual level use of SM
Communication and media studies flourished, generating a search for the reasons and motives causing individuals to use a particular technology base as a means of communi- cation and investigating the influence of SM on attitudes, behaviors and “misbehaviors”. In recent years, SM as embedded in Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn, and Google Plus (Moqbel, Nevo, & Kock, 2013) have captivated the attention of academic interest in the effects of SM (Błachnio, Przepiórka, & Rudnicka, 2013; LaRose, Connolly, Lee, Li, & Hales, 2014; Sipior,
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Ward, Volonino, & MacGabhann, 2013). For example, the Uses and Gratifications theory (Brandtzaeg & Heim, 2009; Smock, Ellison, Lampe & Wohn, 2011) suggests that individu- als have various personal needs, including access to information, entertainment, social in- teraction and personal identity. More specifically, according to the Technology Acceptance Model (Davis et al., 1989), these needs accurately predict the actual use of a new technology, especially when the perceived usefulness and ease of using the technology are high (Lu et al., 2003; Guo et al., 2010).
Indeed, the “instrumental efficiency” of SM to access information and its “social facilitat- ing” capacity to connect between people are key characteristics (Zhang et al., 2013; Loss et al., 2014; Merolli et al., 2013). Moreover, the rich content of SM as suggested by Media Richness theory enables SM users to derive value from user-generated content (Carr & Hayes, 2015). According to the Media System Dependency Perspective (Lee, 2012), this value increases us- ers’ motivation to use SM to access other information, for example earthquake information. Moreover, interpersonal exchanges through content-sharing links, videos and pictures (Kim et al., 2010; Merolli et al., 2013) are especially relevant in decreasing ambiguity, uncertainty or threat and in changing beliefs, values and even behaviors, especially when the content, whether positive or negative, is emotional (Guadagno , Bradley, Okdie & Muscanell, 2013). Risk-prone individuals using SM are therefore likely to have quick access to information and benefit from sharing experiences and expressing opinions (Sharma & Kaur, 2017).
The potential of SM is now evident in many areas including health behavior chang- es (Mano, 2014a, 2014b), social engagement (Mano, 2014b), civic involvement (Kim et al., 2010), “co-production” of products and services (Ritzer & Jurgenson, 2010) and more. The effect of SM on individuals is further amplified by the use of mobile applications (apps) des- ignated for specific purposes (Mohapatra, 2015), such as health, travel, banking and traffic. The proven success of WhatsApp in supporting patients (Boontarig et al., 2012) is especially noticeable among health institutions (Ahad & Lim, 2014; Church & De Oliveira, 2013). These features certainly suggest SM are easily applicable means of disseminating earthquake infor- mation and enhancing earthquake preparedness at the institutional level as well.
Institutional level use of SM: For the most part, disaster-related information is spread through intensive media campaigns to bolster earthquake preparedness initiated by formal administrative institutions such as disaster and emergency agencies as well as by local author- ities. Unfortunately, unlike private service provider institutions that now use SM actively and continuously to build and maintain “relationships” with stakeholders, disaster agencies view such efforts as simply providing information and less as an instrument to shape predisposi- tions and mold individual behavior (Forbus & Snyder, 2013; Pettigrew & Pescud, 2012).This difference may help explain why such public-oriented campaigns have been unsuccessful.
SM, and Twitter and Facebook in particular, have garnered attention as innovative com- munication tools that supplement traditional websites (Serrat, 2010). According to PEW (2016), these media now cover nearly 80% of the US adult population because they are more likely to be discussed, retweeted and archived for future reference, thus increasing their lev- els of stakeholder engagement (Burton and Soboleva, 2011; Castronovo and Huang, 2012). These SM also create an environment that transforms individuals from the role of active re- cipients of messages into vocal advocates, as they share the message and discuss it with others (Bernhardt et al., 2012). The potential to utilize SM to enhance earthquake preparedness is evident in how various institutions use messages, for example as posts and blogs on Facebook (Saxton and Waters, 2014). Risk-prone individuals as “consumers” of information who are more likely to access SM to compensate for a lack of information and to cope with stressful situations, the emphasis should be on creating “dialogic connectivity” (Abeza et al., 2013) as a prime directive in forming and changing attitudes and behavior.
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More important, the Relationship Marketing approach based on the use of websites and Facebook that has been successfully used in business institutions (Carver & Turoff, 2007), it has not been tested in earthquake preparedness. SM “targeting” of special com- munity/public focus groups (Kaplan and Haenlein 2010) has the potential to significant- ly increase dissemination of disaster information in various dialogic forms and exchanges between different social units (Waters et al. 2009). The Relationship Marketing approach can be therefore easily transformed and applied to the area of disaster preparedness, and specifically to earthquake preparedness (Kirschenbaum et al., 2017; Saxton & Guo, 2014). There is, however, a possible downside to relying entirely on SM due to a lack of “dialogic connectivity” between individuals’ access to and institutions’ dissemination of information. While in general, SM is effective in promoting awareness and improving interaction it is not necessarily successful in enhancing message credibility, reliability and effectiveness (Sharma
& Kaur, 2017). To this end, we draw upon the advantags of a relationship marketing approach to introduce the “Social media fit” model.
The “Social media fit” approach to earthquake preparedness. The relationship market- ing approach emphasizes the cultivation of relationships with various consumers and high- lights the mutual benefits derived from each member in the relationship (Abeza et al., 2013; Copulsky and Wolf, 1990). The Relationship Marketing approach may play a crucial role in the dialogic engagement and interactive information exchange process in which consumers and information providers seek mutual benefits based on individual preferences (Hunt et al. 2006). The effectiveness of relationship marketing is confirmed when “it creates addition- al value for products and/or services and consumers” engaged in an ongoing loyalty rela- tionship with another social entity (Sheth & Parvatiyar, 1995). This same process could also be applicable to individuals and institutions whose task is to prepare populations for earth- quakes, thereby affecting earthquake preparedness by impacting the shape of a) [risk] eval- uations and b) preparedness (Mileti et al, 2006). Indeed, online SM providers may increase the potential of the “social media fit” model for earthquake preparedness.
To achieve a competitive advantage in novel technology platforms and optimize the de- sign of online information systems require a clear understanding of the elements that affect the use of SM for online access to essential information (Abdullah & Ward, 2016). This un- derstanding must take into consideration the extent to which the following characteristics improve personal behaviors: a) user characteristics, including gender, age and socioeconom- ic status (Prybutok & Ryan, 2015); b) social support, information acquisition, information exchange, and the sharing of updated information (Hung &Chen, 2013); and c) online cam- paigns (Mano 2014c). The relationship approach can in fact reverse existing critical points related to the flaws of warning and information systems that may be open to disruption and breakdowns, thus potentially passing wrong, distorted and even malicious information to others (Alexander, 2014). Taking these arguments into account, we strongly suggest that if SM is understood within a framework for preparing individuals and households for earth- quakes, it can be a potent means not only of heightening risk awareness. In this study we present the social media fit model (see Figure 1) and suggest that more intensive and diverse use of SM among individuals and institutions will increase the fit between individual-level access to and institutional dissemination of earthquake information and promote a higher level of risk awareness to earthquake preparedness.
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Figure 1. The “social media fit” model for earthquake preparedness
Expected contribution of the social media model to earthquake preparedness.Existing studies have gravitated toward non-binding “predispositions” to earthquake preparedness and focused on how the “message” is delivered, either through “technical” or standard “mass media” conduits but seldom through SM (Sutton et al., 2008). Online SM technologies now have immense potential for delivering and disseminating information in online communi- ties. The open and free information exchange available on SM channels allows for immedi- ate, interactive, time-saving and cost-effective communication among individuals and online communities (Prybutok & Ryan, 2015; Sun et al., 2015). Concurrently, SM channels can be used effectively to disseminate earthquake information. The impact of SM operates on at least two levels: a) extent of SM use among individuals that increases exposure to earth- quake information, and b) extent of use among institutions to facilitate dialogic engagement with potential risk-prone groups to enhance earthquake preparedness (Kirschenbaum et al., 2017). Considering the massive use of SM (Pi et al., 2013, Prybutok & Ryan, 2015) and its tremendous impact on shaping attitudes and predispositions and molding individual be- haviors (Mano, 2014a), we expect that SM use is highly likely to be relevant to accessing and
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disseminating earthquake information and instrumental in achieving earthquake awareness and preparedness while minimizing the reported “flaws” in formal communications (Mileti
& Sorensen, 1990; Goltz, 2002). Indeed, SM may at least supplement (or even substitute) communication media traditionally used to prepare the population for earthquakes.
We draw upon theoretical and empirical findings as springboards in formulating the hy- potheses, delineating the research design and methodology and highlighting the potential impact of virtual platforms and SM on earthquake awareness and preparedness. We also ex- pect that a good “fit” between individual and institutional use of SM should be considered as possible leverage in earthquake preparedness because it will help disaster managers and field operational personnel evaluate the quantity and quality of earthquake information dissemi- nated to the public. A good fit could be especially valuable among risk-prone individuals and vulnerable social groups and at geographic locations marked by high seismic risk. The results will also provide policy makers and practitioners with a set of tools that can be implemented and evaluated at different time points during the earthquake preparedness cycle in order to determine whether different segments of the population are actually prepared.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.3
UDC: 005.334:627.51(497.11)
005.334:[504.4:556.166
Article
DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND PHYCOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE OF RISK
PERCEPTION FROM DISASTERS CAUSED BY FLOODS: CASE STUDY BELGRADE
Jovana Perić1, Vladimir M. Cvetković2,
1 Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, Belgrade; jovana.peric07@gmail.com
* Correspondence: jovana.peric07@gmail.com.
Received: 25 October; Accepted: 24 November; Published: 25 December
Abstract: : Taking into account that floods are a very common occurrence in the Republic of Serbia, as well as the fact that they directly endanger the life and health of people, their property and the environment, it is necessary to see into how an individual perceives the risk of a natural disaster caused by a flood. In accordance with what is mentioned earlier, the research on which this paper is based was conducted in the area of several Belgrade municipalities - Palilula, Zemun, New Belgrade, Old Town, Savski venac, Grocka and Čukarica, with a sample of 120 respondents and with the aim of examining the perception of risk among the citizens of Belgrade. The results of the research show that there is a correlation between demographic (gender, age and education), socio-economic (property ownership and income levels) and psychological (fear and previous experience) factors with risk perception. Based on the results of the research and the knowledge gained, recommendations can be made that the competent au- thorities, institutions and organizations will be able to use in their educational activities, all with the aim of improving the perception of risk in the population. In this way, conditions are created for the implementation of preventive activities that can significantly reduce the consequences of natural disasters.
Keywords: risk perception, natural disaster, floods, prevention.
Introduction
Risk perception is defined as a way of acknowledgment by the community and how it grades the possibility of some disaster happening and, mostly negative, effects of that dis- aster (Bubeck et al. 2012; Grothmann & Reusswig 2006; Lechowska, 2018). Risk perception
appertains to the phycological factor which affects the citizens understanding of disastera, in addition to previous experiences, motivations and fear, comprehension, worries, etc. (Cvet- ković, 2015։ 171). What is important is that the method in which individuals perceive risk coming from a certain natural disaster is a crucial factor in the decision of their response to the warnings of a supposed natural danger (Burn, 1999: 3451). Likewise “humans estimate dangers to which they are or could be exposed to, and that exactly is named “risk percep- tion” (Rohrmann, 2008։ 2). Almost three decades prior a German sociologist Ulrcih Beck presented a thesis that risks to which we are exposed to became priceless and unforeseeable since we live in a perilous society. Beck stated then: “scientific rationality without social ra- tionality remains hollow, also social rationality without scientific rationality remains blind” (Beck, 1992: 30). For that reason it is necessary to deeper explore risk perception which refers to socio-cultural dimensions of risk perception, the resistance of the community and social behavior, using cognitive psychological approaches towards their understanding (Botzen et al., 2009; Guo & Kapucu, 2019; Fujita & Shaw, 2019; Mavrodieva et al., 2019). Having in mind that the concept of “risk” is a human construct, “real” or “objective” risk cannot be discussed, since it is the notion of subjective character (Rausand, 2011). Using the activity of the media, political and institutional subjects responsible for assessment and procurations of risks, as key social and political partakers, the risk perception as the public perceives it can be affected upon (Beck, 1992). The understanding of risk perception allows us (1) to predict, to a certain point, human reactions to natural disasters such as floods, (2) comprehension of risk percep- tion enables the creators of politics and institutions to produce efficient strategies which are in accordance with public expectations, (3) allows the creation of a two-way dialogue among the citizens and government bodies about the risks of natural disasters, which leads to an increase of preparation and effective reactions in the case of a natural disaster (Cologna et al., 2017։ 2). Slovic and Weber (Slovic & Weber, 2002) further explain that “in the limits of a psychometric paradigm, people bring about quantitative judgements regarding a current and wanted riskiness of various dangers and an ideal level of regulation for each one”. In other words, the goal of the psychometric paradigm is to divulge the factors that define risk percep- tion (Siegrist, Keller, Henk & Kiers, 2005).
In risk perception theory there has been a great influence by Paul Slovic, who among his colleagues, firstly researched risk perception of citizens though the theory of personality, to later add to the research based on a psychometric approach. Based on the theory of personality they required from the respondents, based on personal opinions about natural disasters, to ad- duce characteristics which affect their risk perception. Aside from the information mentioned above, Slovic pointed out that risk in a “modern world” is perceived in two ways, the first one being “risk as a feeling” which is manifested as an instinctive and intuitive reaction to a certain danger, and the second one being “risk as analysis” which is recognized by a logical and sen- sible reasoning and is manifested as an assessment of risk and bringing forth decisions (Slovic
& Peters, 2014: 322). A well-known study by Slovic (Slovic, Flynn, & Layman, 1991) included posing the following question to people “how will their trust act under the influence of various happenings” (Sjöberg, 2003: 6). At that point a conclusion has been reached that it is “easy to destroy trust, but difficult to regain it” (Slovic, Flynn, & Layman, 1991).
Literary review
Numerous foreign theorists have engaged in research into the risk perception of natu- ral disasters. Relevant research has been conducted in Chile (Bronfman & Cifuentes, 2003), Japan (Motoyoshi, 2006), coastal areas (Magliocca & Walls, 2018), China (Liu et al., 2018),
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New Zealand (Crawford et al., 2018), Portugal (Rego, 2018), Germany (Frondel et al., 2017), northern Italy (Cabini et al., 2018), Greece (Diakakis, 2018), Burkina Faso (Schlef, 2018), Brazil ( Adraya et al., 2017), Great Britain (Cologna et al., 2017), Serbia (Cvetković, 2016), etc. The aforementioned research in Chile aimed to explain the perception of natural disas- ters risk using a psychometric paradigm. The goals were: to assess what danger preoccupies Chileans, to describe the risks that affect perceptions of them; explore the differences be- tween perceived social risk and perceived personal risk; to examine risk acceptability issues. In Japan, a survey of citizens’ perception of flood risk as a prerequisite for devising activities to engage residents in disaster prevention was conducted. Surveys of flood risk perception in rural Henan Province, China showed that women have a better perception of flood risk than men, respondents with more education, children at home and previous experience with floods perceive floods more as natural hazards than others, old age the group between 18 and 44 had the highest perception of flood risk, etc. In Greece, results of a survey on the percep- tion of natural disaster risk showed that respondents treat floods of third importance behind earthquakes and forest fires, and respondents’ responses indicate a low level of confidence in the competent state authorities but also a low level of knowledge about flood protection and awareness activities. The questions that aroused researchers’ attention when examining risk perception were most often whether citizens were aware of the risks (Cvetković, 2016; Cvet- ković & Sandić, 2016) of natural disasters (Jakovljević, Gačić & Cvetković, 2015; Cvetković, Milojković & Stojković ; Cvetković, Vucic & Gacic, 2015; Cvetkovic, Gacic & Jakovljevic, 2016).
The impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors has been exam- ined in disaster theory. Thus, the influence of gender has been studied (Becker, 2011; Cv- etković, 2016; Ardaya, Ribbe & Evers, 2017), years of age (Heller, Alexander, Gatz, Knight,
& Rose, 2005; Marshall Jr & Mathews, 2010; Cvetković, 2016), education level (Cvetković et al., 2015; Öcal & Topkaya, 2011; Smawfield, 2012; Tuswadi & Hayashi, 2014; Jakovljević, Cvetković & Gačić, 2015), household income (Werritty, Houston, Ball, Tavendale & Black. 2007; Cvetković, 2016), property ownership (Baker, 2011; Cvetković, 2016), marital status (Spittal, McClure, Siegert, & Walkey, 2008; Cvetković 2016), victim characteristics, and type of natural disaster (Ho & al., 2006) etc. Residents living in areas often affected by natural disasters are often more aware of threats than such events (Lindell & Perry, 1992), take pre- ventative measures (Faupel, Kelly & Petee, 1992) and are better aware of warning and notifi- cation systems for impending hazards (Cvetković, 2016; Cvetković & Gačić, 2016); individ- uals who have experienced serious material and psychological consequences as a result of natural disasters, pay much more attention to media writing about disasters (Cvetković and Milojković, 2016), but are more prepared to respond (Cvetković, 2015); in the motivation phase to improve preparedness for response to natural disasters, the following variables influ- ence: risk perception, critical awareness and fear of natural disasters (Paton, 2003) indicates in his research that these variables influence the degree of motivation of people for imple- mented a disaster preparedness measure. In the context of the perception of natural disasters risk, a study conducted by Cvetković (2016) led to the following conclusion: “a statistically significant correlation between fear, previous experience, risk perception and motivation to take preventive measures was identified”. The following has been identified in the disaster literature: socio-economic characteristics influence the perception of natural disasters risk (Bronfman & Cifuentes, 2003); risk perception is influenced by communication between competent authorities and the potentially vulnerable population; as well as awareness of the costs that a flood can cause (Motoyoshi, 2006); women have a better perception of flood risk than men, respondents with more education, children in the home and previous experience with floods perceived floods as more natural than others, the age group between 18 and 44 had the highest perception of flood risk (Liu et al ,, 2018); local government has a dominant
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role in influencing the perception of natural disasters risk (Crawford et al., 2018); disaster knowledge influences risk perception (Rego, 2018); personal disaster experience and person- al disaster damage are strong drivers of individual risk perception (Frondel et al., 2017); in Greece, results of a survey on the perception of natural disaster risk showed that respondents treat floods of the third highest importance after earthquakes and forest fires, and respond- ents’ responses indicate a low level of confidence in the competent authorities and a low level of knowledge about flood protection and awareness activities (Diakakis , 2018); Burkina Fa- so’s perception of flood risk perception has shown that following previous flood experiences (2009), risk perception has hardly changed due to the view that prevention measures are expensive and people’s accountability for action is limited (Schlef, 2018); the media play a crucial role in shaping citizens’ risk perceptions (Cologna et al., 2017).
Talking about gender and the impact of gender on risk perception (Ho & al., 2006; Beck- er, 2011; Cvetković, 2016; Ardaya, Ribbe & Evers, 2017), some researchers have come to the conclusion that the importance of gender factor testing is greater in countries where the cul- tural and legal differences between the sexes are stronger, as is the case in Pakistan (Ardaya, Ribbe & Evers, 2017). According to Slovic (1994), some studies have pointed to the fact that women experience a higher level of risk than men. This conclusion was reached in a study conducted by Wang (Wang et al., 2018) as well as Jonkman & Vrijling (Jonkman & Vrijling, 2008), which found that men account for more than 70% of flood victims. They attribute the above to a high proportion of men in emergency situations, that is, in providing assistance and services during emergencies, which puts them at greater risk. In addition, they point out that men are more likely to take risks. In this regard, more than 90% of the men surveyed would participate in flood prevention activities (Urcan, 2012).
Concerning the correlation between age and risk perception, numerous studies have also been conducted (Heller, Alexander, Gatz, Knight, & Rose, 2005; Marshall Jr & Mathews, 2010; Cvetković, 2016). One of them (Wang et al., 2018) indicated a significant correlation between age and risk perception. Specifically, it concluded that the level of risk perception is higher among senior citizens, those aged 51 to 70 years. Urcan (2012) found the following results in terms of the impact of age on flood risk perception: people between 50 and 60 (es- pecially women) would only leave their homes if they were forced to do so by the authorities, all because of they find it difficult to leave their belongings; those who would rather face the flood are people, especially men, between 30 and 50 years of age, who feel they can face any type of danger and are unaware of its severity; older people, both men and women, will take preventative measures in a smaller number of cases.
Ho et al. (Ho et al., 2006), as one of the conclusions they reached, point out that education plays a significant role in creating risk perception. Specifically, they point out that people with a high level of education have a lower level of risk perception due to the fact that they have a better understanding of the information they receive (about the characteristics of floods, the measures to be implemented) and accordingly feel that they can control the situation. In the context of education, both the results cited by Wang et al (Wang et al., 2018) indicated a sig- nificant correlation between education and knowledge and risk perception. They came to the same conclusion - people with higher education level have lower level of risk perception, and in that sense those with a college degree perceive risk differently than those with a primary, secondary or higher education. A study conducted by Wang et al (Wang et al., 2018) conclud- ed that people with lower monthly incomes had a higher level of flood risk perception, while those with higher monthly incomes correlated with those with higher education level. These results coincide with those obtained by Kellens et al (Kellens, Terpstra & De Maeyer, 2013).
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Methods
The research of risk perception relating to natural disasters among citizens of Belgrade based on demographical, socio-economical and psychological factors is established upon a statistical quantitative research. In this respect, the results of previous research has been test- ed primarily, and afterwards a survey in the form of a questionnaire was formed. The survey was based upon the one used in a survey conducted in Australia (Becker, Johnston, Coomer,
& Ronan, 2007). The survey consists of a general part and a part connected to risk percep- tion. In the first, general part, questions connected to demographical and socio-economical characteristics of the examinees: gender, age, marital status, educational level, extent of the monthly income per household and ownership of the property they live in, can be found. The second part of the survey holds the statements which were evaluated by the respondents, with a purpose of researching their stance about the consciousness relating to flood, preparedness and worry regarding floods. Adults of age, from municipalities belonging to Belgrade and which in the most part overlook rivers Sava and Danube – Zemun, Novi Beograd, Cukari- ca, Grocka, Palilula, Stari Grad and Savski venac, were interviewed during this survey. The households, in which the survey was conducted, were chosen by a random sampling method. 120 citizens were questioned in total. The majority of the respondents is from the Novi Be- ograd and Grocka area, each 19.2%, and the minority from Savski venac (8.3%), and from the total number of respondents, a larger share hold the men (55%) compared to women (45%). Analyzing the education level, it is noticeable that most of the examinees are those with a high education (39.2%), and the least are those with an elementary school degree (1.7%). Regarding marital status, the majority of the respondents was married (34.2%), followed by those who are not engaged in a relationship, i.e. single (31.7%) and respondents in a certain type of a relationship (20.8%). In the context of age, younger examinees are dominant where the largest percentage is among people between the ages of 25 and 35 (42.5%), whereas the number of older respondents, those over the age of 55, is minor (5.8%). Additionally, while examining the socio-economical parameters, it is noticeable that based on the extent of the monthly income per household, the majority of the respondents has income above 90.000 dinars (64.2%), and also lives in a property owned by a family member (56.7%). Within the survey three groups are formed that are based on risk perception caused by floods and those are as follows: consciousness, preparation and concern. For each of the mentioned groups questions have been asked which as a goal have representation of the level of risk per- ception among citizens. From the questionnaire, the key questions have been secluded and processed, that is the ones which have been considered to the most important for evaluating the connection between demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors relating to risk perception from floods. Firstly, we approached to counting the cases which belong to different categories and following the data which has been gained had been intertwined for the sake of researching the differences among the groups.
Results
Examining the influence of demographic factors on risk perception from floods (gender, age and education), with some of the aspects of risk perception (conscience, preparation and concern regarding floods) it is concluded that there is no statistically significant connection regarding the hold of neither of the mentioned demographical factors related to the under- standing of flooding (p>0.05). In that sense, men and women, in a nearly equal percentage have conscience about floods, as well as older and younger respondents along with respond-
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ents of different educational levels. In each category, the biggest percentage of examinees answered the question “Do you consider that you live in an area which is in immediate dan- ger of floods” with an answer that they do not (54%). What should be pointed out is that the majority of the respondents consider that their house/apartment could not be endangered by floods is above the age of 55 (85.5%). Likewise, men and women almost equally appraised the possibility of flooding occurring in the are of their municipality. On both sides, the big- gest percentage of the respondents labeled that the occurrence of floods is possible up to a certain level, specifically 60.6% of the total number of men examined and 70.4% of the total number of women. Nextly, the majority of respondent considers that a flood could occur in the following 5 years, respectively 42.2% from the total amount of questioned men and 38.9% of questioned women.
Considering the preparedness to react in the case of a flood, different results have been achieved. To the question “Do you consider that it is necessary to engage preventive measures in case of a flood occurring”, the majority of the respondents answered affirmatively (85%). With further analysis it is confirmed that 87% of the total number of women examined con- siders that it is necessary to include preventive measures, and the same is though of by 83.3% of men. Although a bigger percentage of women stated that they consider it necessary to en- gage preventive measures, likewise that they have the intention to inform themselves about risk from flooding (53.7% of women and 45.5% of men), men, in a bigger percentage (45.5%) have the intention to include themselves in the implementation of measure to reduce the risk of flooding, comparing to women (31.5%). In the correlation with age, it is determined that the majority of the respondent which would participate in the methods mentioned is be- tween the ages of 36 and 45 (50%). However, although it can be concluded that men between the ages of 36 and 45 are prepared for floods in a more serious manner, it is not determined whether there is a significant correlation between gender and age in relation to preparedness for flood, as one of the aspects of risk perception (p>0.05). When analyzing the influence of education on preparedness for floods, the results showed that college educated individuals, above all those with a high education, in a more significant amount that others, consider that it is necessary to implement preventive measures (91.5%), but that only a lesser percentage among them is ready to include themselves in the implementation and has affirmatively an- swered the question” Do you intend to, in any way, include yourself in the implementation of actions where the goal is to reduce the risk of flooding” (38.3%). Also, what should be mentioned is that the least percentage of the respondents which stated that they have an in- tention to inform themselves regarding risk of flooding (28.6%), as well as actions regarding reducing the risk (14.3%) is in the category of those aged over 55 year. Based on the facts that were previously mentioned, it can be deduced that older citizens, in addition that they deem they cannot be affected by floods, they are also the least prepared in case of floods.
The results gained form intertwining demographic factors and concerns regarding floods, showed that women in a larger percentage, in a certain measure, fear floods (48.2%), com- paring to men which have stated that they have no fear from this danger (60.6%). In that manner it is concluded that there is a statistically important connection between gender and fear from flooding (p=.002), hence it can be deduced that women perceive risk from floods more than men. It is stated that in accordance to precious results which indicate that men, in a higher percentage, have the intention and are ready to join the actions towards reducing the risk of floods comparing to women, although women consider, in a higher percentage, that it is necessary to carry out preventive measures and inform about the risk of flooding and the actions connected to reducing said risk.
Taking into consideration socio-economical factors (ownership of a property and the ex- tent of the monthly income per household) and crossing them with aspects of risk perception
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(conscience, preparedness and concern), it is confirmed that there is no statistically signifi- cant connection neither between ownership of a property and conscience, nor the extent of the monthly income per household and conscience regarding floods (p>0.05). Independently from the fat in whose household they live in, as well as how high their monthly income is, the majority of the respondents considers that the municipality in which they live, thus their household is not endangered by floods. However, there are differences in the answers of the respondents, thus the highest percentage of the total number of the respondents which live in a property owned by them personally consider that they, nevertheless, live in an area which can be affected by floods (42.9%), followed by respondents who live in a property owned by a family member (41.2%) and lastly the respondent that live in a property owned by a third party from whom they rent the property (36.4%). The answer to the following question is stated with a certain contrast “Could your household be damaged in the case of floods”, where the majority of the respondents who lives in a property which they personally own (64.3%) considers that it cannot be endangered.
The highest number of the respondents which lives in a personal property (92.2%) consid- ers that it is needed to implement preventive measures, and among that percentage a smaller amount has the intention to participate in said implementation (50%), as is mentioned that this is a higher number than those who live in a property owned by a family member (33.8%), or a third party whom they are renting from (40.9%). The respondents, depending on their monthly income, have declared their opinions regarding implementation of preventive meas- ures and the intention to be included in actions towards reducing flood risk. Majority of the respondents, independently from their monthly incomes, agreed that it is necessary to implement preventive measure, however a smaller number declared that they would be in- cluded in the implementation itself. Thus, from the total amount of the respondent whose monthly income is between 50.000 and 75.000, the majority (53.1%) clarified that they have an intention, whereas from the total amount of respondent with incomes above 90.000 (39%) clarified that they have no intention, as well as respondents with monthly incomes between
25.000 and 50.000 (30%). However, despite the mentioned differences, and regarding the connection of socio-economic factors and preparedness for floods, there is no significant statistical correlation (p>0.05).
On the other hand, it is deduced that there is a statistically important connection between the ownership of a property and concerns about floods (p=.000). Namely, the respondents who live in a personally owned property perceive the flood risk in a bigger amount and con- sider that flood are a subject of concern to a certain amount, comparing to the respondents who live in a third-party owned property which they rent. Also, 63.6% of these respondents stated that they have no fear of floods, comparing to those who own the property (42.9%) or whose property is owned by a family member (41.2%). Analyzing the influence of other socio-economic factors, the extent of the monthly salary, a conclusion was formed that the crucial factor in determining floods as a cause of concern or fear, hence the statements from the respondents were mostly equal. However, what should be mentioned is that the respond- ents with a monthly income between 25.000 and 50.000 stated in a larger percentage that they have no fear from floods (50%) which is a higher percentage comparing to other categories.
The results also showed that respondents with higher levels of education had lower lev- els of risk perception. Specifically, they are less likely to consider floods as a threat to their personal safety or their household. These results are consistent with the conclusion reached by Wang et al (Wang et al., 2018). They pointed to a significant correlation between educa- tion and knowledge and perception of risk, and pointed out that people with higher levels of education perceived risk less, and in that sense those with a college degree perceived risk differently than those with primary or secondary education. Speaking of ownership of the
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building, it has been shown that respondents who live in a building that is their personal property in a larger number find it necessary to implement preventive measures compared to respondents who live in the building owned by a third party from whom the property is rented. A statistically significant correlation was also found with regard to the relationship between facility ownership and flood care, where it was found that respondents living in the facility that owned them were more likely to think that floods were to some extent a concern. This has indicated an association with the results obtained in some previously conducted studies (Grothmann & Reusswig, 2006; Burningham, Fielding & Thrush, 2008; Kellens et al., 2013). The above suggests that ownership of the property results in a higher level of perceived risk of renting the property. When it comes to the impact of income levels, unlike the results obtained by Cvetković (2016) - that the employed and with household income exceeding 90,000 dinars have taken more preventative measures, this research has shown that in rela- tion to other categories based on the criteria of the amount of income, out of the total num- ber of respondents with monthly incomes over 90,000, a smaller percentage stated that they intended to inform about flood risk, activities that reduce the level of risk, and participate in the implementation of these activities.
Discussion
The results of this survey indicate that a larger percentage of the total respondents believe that they do not live in the area at risk of flooding, but believe that the implementation of preventive measures is necessary and that floods are, to some extent, still a matter of concern. Men and women, in almost the same percentage, believe that they cannot be threatened by the flood, that is, they do not live in the area endangered by the flood. Regarding gender link- age and flood preparedness to risk perception, it has been found that both men and women consider that measures and activities to reduce flood risk are necessary. While women in the greater proportion are intended to be informed about flood risk as well as the above activities, men are more likely than women to participate in activities aimed at reducing flood risk. The above confirmed the results obtained by Cvetković (2016) in his research, as well as by Jonk- man & Vrijling (Jonkman & Vrijling, 2008), who concluded with their research that men are more likely to take risks and that there is a high proportion of men in emergency situations , that is, in providing assistance and services during emergencies. Also, the results obtained by Urcan (Urcan, 2012) confirmed that men were more likely to participate in flood prevention activities (more than 90% of respondents stated this way).
Starting with flood concern, the study further concluded that women have more fear of floods than men, and found that there was a statistically significant connection, confirming the results of research conducted by Wang et al. (Wang et al., 2018 ), which state that women experience a higher level of risk than men. Also, worth mentioning here is a survey by Jonk- man & Vrijling (Jonkman & Vrijling, 2008), which points out that precisely because wom- en experience greater and lesser risk of participating directly in various activities to reduce flood risk, men are more at risk and make up more than 70% of flood victims. The study also found a statistically significant connection between education and preparedness with risk perception. Specifically, it turns out that the majority of citizens think that it is necessary to implement preventive measures, but the most significant percentage is among citizens with higher education. The above confirmed the results obtained by Urcan (Urcan, 2012), namely that knowledge encourages openness to better organization in the implementation of preven- tive measures as well as measures to reduce the consequences of danger. However, although a statistically significant connection was observed between education level and thinking about
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the need for preventive measures, there was no s statistically significant connection with intentions to inform the activities to be undertaken and intentions to engage in flood risk reduction activities.
The results also showed that respondents with higher levels of education had lower levels of risk perception. Specifically, they are less likely to consider floods as a threat to their per- sonal safety or their household. These results are consistent with the conclusion reached by Wang et al (Wang et al., 2018). They pointed to a significant connection between education and knowledge and risk perception, and pointed out that people with higher levels of educa- tion perceived risk less, and in that sense those with a college degree perceived risk differently than those with primary or secondary education. Speaking of ownership of the property, it has been shown that respondents who live in a building that is their personal property in a larger number find it necessary to implement preventive measures compared to respondents who live in the building owned by a third party from whom the property is rented. A statis- tically significant connection was also found with regard to the relationship between facility ownership and flood care, where it was found that respondents living in the facility that is their own property were more likely to think that floods were to some extent a concern. This has indicated an association with the results obtained in some previously conducted studies (Grothmann & Reusswig, 2006; Burningham, Fielding & Thrush, 2008; Kellens et al., 2013). The above suggests that ownership of the property results in a higher level of perceived risk of renting the property. When it comes to the impact of income levels, unlike the results ob- tained by Cvetković (2016) - that the employed and with household income exceeding 90,000 dinars have taken more preventative measures, this research has shown that in relation to other categories based on the criteria of the amount of income, out of the total number of respondents with monthly incomes over 90,000, a smaller percentage stated that they intend- ed to inform about flood risk, activities that reduce the level of risk, and participate in the implementation of these activities.
Conclusions
Starting with the fact that risk perception is a complex term which correlates with a cer- tain amount of factors, it is necessary to examine their influence adequately, in order to plan actions in the future which could benefit the reduction of negative consequences of floods. Based on the results of the research and knowledge gained references could be given which the authorities, institutions and organizations could use in their educational activities, all with the purpose of advancing risk perception among the population. In that manner, con- ditions to implement preventive actions which can be used to reduce the consequences of natural disasters, can be used. In this case, the results indicate that the education of senior citizens and women should be focused upon, in addition to inventing programs which would as a certain goal have the presentation f actions which could be used as a reduction of flood risk. As previously mentioned, risk perception presents an intensely complex term on which, in certain measures, different factors can influence upon. Therefore it is of importance to conduct further research which would indicate potential changes which could appear in the future. What is mentioned is of utmost importance when considering the continuous devel- opment and progress of the society which is conditioning changes, either in the human en- vironment or human perception of the mentioned environment. Thus, with further research of various factors, measures could be recommended which would go side by side with the changes, would be the most efficient and have the best performance.
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Author Contributions: Jovana Perić and Vladimir Cvetković have jointly designed a meth- odological framework for research. Jovana Perić wrote a literature review and conducted a fi ld search, Vladimir Cvetković analyzed the results of the research using a statistical method and wrote conclusion.
Funding: This research was funded by Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management.
Conflicts of Interest: Declare conflicts of interest or state “The authors declare no conflict of interest.”
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Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.4
UDC: 005.334:627.51(497.11)
005.334:[504.4:556.166
SCHOOL-COMMUNITY COLLABORATION: DISASTER PREPAREDNESS TOWARDS BUILDING RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
Gian Carla S. Rico
Saint Jude Catholic School Manila, Philippines
Correspondence: gian_rico@dlsu.edu.ph
Received: 30 July; Accepted: 20 August; Published: 25 December
ABSTRACT: The impact of disasters could not be undermined as the occurrence of which threatens national and international security at a great height. Disasters do not only disrupt daily activities but also take toll on the livelihood of individu- als causing bigger implications on social and societal conditions, economic activ- ities and progress as well as emotional and psychological impact on individuals. Being ranked as the third country in the world with high exposure to hazards, the Philippines tries to maximize resources and agents that could help in creating disaster risk reduction approaches and practices that are proactive rather than reactive. The collaboration between schools -the source of relevant knowledge and behavior formation ground, and the communities- the source of identity of individuals and groups, is seen as an effective way of promoting resilience among people. This study looks into the roles of schools and communities in reducing the risks disasters as well as how their collaboration creates linkages between and among stakeholders.
Keywords: disaster, school-community collaboration, preparedness, resilient.
Introduction
During the last decades, countries around the world have faced different disasters which the frequency has increased rapidly causing great damages to properties and infrastru- ctures,taking lives of millions of people and placing the environment suceptible to greater haz-ards (Seneviratre, Baldry, & Pathirage, 2010). Disaster Risk Reduction is a prevailing
trend in disaster management as the vulnerability of the world to natural hazards has increased over the years. Resilience to and recovery from disasters have been studied by various groups and governments to reduce the tolls of disasters and increase their recovery capacity. There is no single standard apporach that could be implented in relation to disaster management, however with the same goals of reducing the effects of disasters and promoting a culture of preparedness, the integration of disaster risk reduction practices into different sectors havee been considred and implemented.
Every disaster results to different scenarios or circumstances bringing into multilevel ef- fects. Based on studies, the occurrences of disasters have increased during the last century changing the perception of people on the nature of a disaster and the region it is most prone to. In addition, the world has seen how the occurrence of a disaster results to another disaster
(Seneviratre, Baldry, & Pathirage, 2010). The need for an effective disaster management pro- gram that will address the needs of an organization, community and individual is highlight- ed by different international disaster management frameworks. The complexities of disaster management may be seen as a hurdle in the achievement of an effective and efficient disaster management plan. Contrary though, those complexities can become a channel of opportuni- ties for the possibility of collaboration of networks within a system (O’Sullivan, Kuziemsky, Toal-Sullivan, & Correil, 2013). The community and school are networks that have the po- tential to work together in preparing for disasters and promote resiliency.
In 2006, the Hyogo Framework for Action was created which aimed to reduce losses due to disaster, strengthen resiliency and promote a “culture of prevention” through innovation, education and knowledge (Oktari, Shiwaku, Munadi, Syamsidik, & Shaw, 2015). Wisner em- phasized that education, knowledge and awareness have strong potential to prevent the high stakes of losses due to natural hazards and to carry out effective and efficient response to and recover from any natural hazards that affect people from all levels (Wisner, 2006). The role of education in providing knowledge and information should be most evident when one has the capacity to perform in events when information and knowledge are needed. The toll of disaster could be greatly mitigated if people’s knowledge has taught them to embed a culture of disaster prevention making them more resilient (Benadusi, 2015) . Incorporating disaster risk management is one of the most doable practices that could mitigate the adverse effects of disaster not to mention the efficiency of education as a tool that could be used in dissemenat- ing vital knowledge and information about how people from different levels could be more prepared and resilient in times of disaster (Apronti, Osamu, Otsuki, & Kranjac-Berisavljevic, 2015) and how they can turn their vulnerability to become victims to being actors who could help in recovery and rescue
In 2006, “Disaster Risk Reduction Begins at School” was launched by the UN-ISDR to- gether with UNESCO to promote a “culture of disaster prevention” among children. This project aims to (i) raise awareness within school communities (ii) build a culture of preven- tion and (iii) make school buildings safer. (Kan, 2007). Schools are not the only entity respon- sible for disseminating disaster education, the knowledge that schools provide must not be contained in the walls of the schools but must also involve communities and families (Oktari, Shiwaku, Munadi, Syamsidik, & Shaw, 2015) since the impact of disasters does not only leave schools devasted but also communities surrounding it. (Matsuura & Shaw, 2015). Several literatures have proved that school-community collaboration aiming for reducing the impact of disasters and building resilient communities is an effective disaster management method.
Based on the study of SEAMEO-INNOTECH, From 2003-2013, the Philippines has the highest recorded frequency of disaster and considered to have the highest vulnerability level in Southeast Asian region (2014). Manila, the capital of the Philippines has 897 barangays and 232 basic education schools (DepEd). In 2015, the city was identified as one of the “hot- spots” for natural disasters given its geophysical chracteristics. 8 out of 10 cities in the world with the highest exposure to natural disasters are found in the Philippines with Manila plac- ing 4th (NHRA, 2015). Frequent flooding and cyclones are some of the hazards that the city experiences. In the last decade, the city was not spared from the brunt of diffrent cyclones such as Ondoy, Pepeng, Milenyo and Yolanda. NCR has the third highest porportion of ba- rangays and population affected by Ondoy and has the second highest reported death toll becaue of the devastation caused by Ondoy and Pepeng.
Schools have long standing responsibility of ushering its primary stakeholders to devel- opment and growth. However, schools are not limited to academic and cultural pedagogical premises of learning. Schools also have the capacity to build communities that can reduce impacts of hazards, withstand the brunt of disaster and enable members to become “assets”
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rather than “liabilities” through proper knowledge dissemination and committed engagement with the members of the community in fully utilizing the resources which could increase the capacity of a community to recover after a disaster and promote resilience. The involvement of communities in disaster risk reduction proves to be more effective in reducing the impacts of disasters on people as well as on their livelihood and economic activities.
Schools have the capability to initiate disaster risk reduction practices which encourage the involvement of communities thereby creating linkages among and between people and organizations (Masuura & Shaw, 2015) Furthernore, knowledge development which starts at schools allow the building of resilient communities in the context of disaster management (Oktari, Shiwaku, Munadi, Syamsidik, & Shaw, 2015).
Depsite wide campaigns on disaster preparedness, a lot of people still insufficient degree of disaster preparenedness knowledge which aggrevate the effects of disasters (Cavalo & Ire- land, 2014). The school system and local communities provide information and knowledge relevant to disaster management, increasing the capacity of communities in the face of disas- ters. Though schools and communities espouse the principle of disaster preparedness, there is less evidence in the Philippines that shows strong collaboration between schools and com- munities for disater preparedness. In this light,this study aims to answer the following ques- tion: 1.) What are the sources of knowledge of school and communities related to disaster preparedness ? 2) How does the knowledge of school and community promote collaboration for disaster preparednes and promotion of community resilience?;and What are the factors that inhibit school-community collaboration?
This study aims to: (i) identify the sources of disaster knowledge of schools and commu- nities? (ii) explore the school-community collaborative practices for disaster preparedness) and (iii) identify the factors that inhbit school-community collaboration for disaster prepar- edness.
Overview of Related Literature
Role of schools in disaster management
Schools provide social welfare to the community by means of education and by being utilized into different purposes. Schools are great venues for briefings, meetings and train- ings which can be helpful and provide not just to its own stakeholders but the surrounding communities as well. By being channels of knowledge and information dissemination, they become centers of disaster risk reduction education, creating a strong connection among and between communities, people and other organizations (Matsuura & Shaw, 2015). Based on studies, school-based disaster preparedness programs can effectively reduce the degree of fear among its stakeholders during geophysical events and help in cultivating effective decision-making (Mutch, 2015) which spans across and outside the school creating a possi- ble impact on the disaster preparedness of communities nearby (Oktari, Shiwaku, Munadi, Syamsidik, & Shaw, 2015).
Aside from the physical and structural capacity of schools to promote resilience, they also serve as a hub of learning and effective knowledge on disaster preparedness through disaster education which could greatly benefit communities through the transfer of knowledge based on the disaster risk reduction education they provide (Fernandez & Shaw, 2014). Disaster risk reduction education is delivered in two different modes, formal or non-formal which aims to promote disaster resilience and knowledge at multidimensional levels through differ- ent means. Such education is not limited to school-based activities but rather encourages the
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collaboration of schools and communities in designing disaster risk reduction practices fit to the needs of the community, reducing the technicalities of its nature which inhibit people from understanding the importance of disaster risk reduction (Fernandez & Shaw, 2014).
Community Disaster Risk Reduction
Addressing disaster management issues does not only concern the national government but the local communities as well. As the world tries to get through the impacts of disas- ters, alternative strategies are necessary to prepare communities to unexpected events that may occur and apply relevant and accurate level of knowledge on disaster preparedness and promote resilience in the local level. Any community is a deeply-linked component of local, regional and national society, and while its well-being is of significance at all scales, its signif- icance is nevertheless highest locally. Thus direct responsibility for planning for future disas- ters lies primarily in and around the community ( (Davies, et al., 2015). In the Philippines, the legal bases of barangay level disaster preparedness is coherent to RA 10121 also known as the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010. In the joint mem- orandum developed by the NDRRMC, DILG,DBM and CSC, the creation of Barangay Risk Reduction Management Committees (BDRRMCs) alongside Local Disaster Risk Reduction Management Offices (LDRRMOs) emphasized the role of Barangays in “mainstreaming of DRRM in all processes which principally requires the institutionalization and organization of its structures, in all levels of government nationwide, where local DRRM plans and policies will be developed, and where implementation of actions and measures pertaining to all as- pects of DRRM will be initiated.” In the Barangay level, a BDRRM shall be created which will initiate the disaster risk reduction management through the development, implementation and coordination of disaster risk management programs within their jurisdiction. To fulfill this mandate, barangays must organize, train and directly supervise the local emergency re- sponse teams and the accredited community disaster volunteers (ACDVs).
Complexity Theory and Disaster Preparedness
UNISDR defined disaster as “a serious disruption of the function of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and im- pacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.” Disasters include the vulnerability of community and its stakeholders and the re- lationship between the capacity of people to address disruptions and their capacity to utilize their resources due to the hazards that they are exposed to. In the turnout of events in the century, the impact of disasters has greatly affected the functions not just of a community but of a country as well. In this light disaster management has come into a bigger and new perspective and one aspect of disaster management that has received emphasis is disaster preparedness.
Disaster preparedness plans and approaches are created to determine the most essential needs to be secured during and after disasters, (Gowan, Sloan, & Kirk, 2015) reduce the risks of disasters and help communities promote resilience since disaster preparedness, re- silience and disaster management are strongly interconnected (Cavalo & Ireland, 2014). The management of disaster knowledge therefore must be strongly emphasized in all phases of disaster management (Seneviratre, Baldry, & Pathirage, 2010). Members of a community have integral knowledge, networks and adaptive skills that promote resilience and mitigate
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the vulnerability of the community (Bolton, Kim, & Pat, 2014) hence the impact of natural hazards could be greatly reduced if an effective collaboration of the groups and members of a community is carried out (Nolasco, Beguia, Durante, & D.Tipones, 2015).
The school is one network in a community that has the capacity to build resilience by be- ing a center for disaster risk management through its innate function to influence and guide people’s behavior, skills and values central to their development (Mutsau & Billiat, 2015). The collaboration between schools and communities for disaster preparedness entails complex- ities that are considered important factors in promoting resilience. The “dynamic context” which is attributed to the diverse elements in the system spans outside the boundaries of the existing system, supports collaboration in times of disasters or preparation for which, gives way to the emergence of possible opportunities to address a disaster and alternation of be- havior thereby increasing the awareness of the stakeholders and promotes adaptive response which encompasses sustaonable actions (O’Sullivan, Kuziemsky, Toal-Sullivan, & Correil, 2013). Figure 1 shows dynamic networks, knowledge, interconnectedness, collaboration, awareness and adaptive response as the core themes of complexity theory. Emergence and interconnectedness are the basic principles of complexity theory which allows the changes in the nature of knowledge of communities due to resrtucturing, political influence, emerging hazards, generation of information, changes in human need and capabilities and influence of increased situational awareness (O’Sullivan, Kuziemsky, Toal-Sullivan, & Correil, 2013)
Fig.1 Conceptual Framework For School-Community Collaboration in Disaster Prepar- ednes to Promote Resilience
Information Asymmetry: The Dynamic Context of Complexities
The phases of disaster management are highly influenced by the dynamic context present in a community hence multi-directional patterns could be observed which also affect culture and the availability of knowledge that could be transferred from one element to another or from one system to another. Specifically, the dynamic context involves expanding knowledge
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and skills, social networks, emergent opportunities for collaboration, evolving relationships, lessons from previous disasters and changing attitudes with increased awareness (O’Sullivan, Kuziemsky, Toal-Sullivan, & Correil, 2013). Communities and schools are capable of self-or- ganization but being elements of one system, they must both recognize their functions and undertake their role through a more collaborative strategy to promote resilient communities (Takeuchi, Mulyasari, & Shaw, 2011). The political priorities and structures present in both elements signify the factors that underscore the asymmetry of knowledge and information the schools and communities hold essential in preparing for disasters. Schools as main hubs of learning see disaster preparedness as a mechanism that could spare people from the brunt of disasters, reduce its risks and promote not just individual resilience but community resil- ience if implicit knowledge is delivered to them in the most effective way. Local communities however, see disaster preparedness as a way to mitigate the risks of disasters by adopting disaster management policies and making use of existing local knowledge that has changed over time due to the lessons learned from experiences. Thus to belie the information gap due to asymmetric knowledge, the development of strategies that promote situational awareness is crucial because it will serve as the link between institutions which identify the same goal but recognize different means to achieve it (Militello, Patterson, Bowman, & Wears, 2007)
Collaboration Opportunities through Situational Awareness
Situational awareness is defined as “the perception of the elements in the environment within a volume of time and space, comprehension of their meaning, and the projection of their status in the near future’’ (Endsley, 2003). In the context of disaster management, the development of situational awareness could be achieved by creating an information level framework underscoring information needs and linking relevant factors that will aid in the effective assessment of the needs of a community as well the necessary response equitable to those needs. Crucial to the development of situational awareness is the quality of information available and the method by which it is transferred to those who are affected (Seppänen & Virrantaus, 2015). Though the concept of situational awareness focuses mainly on disaster response, this tenet of complexity theory may be applied in disaster preparedness since it includes the perception of the future conditions entangled in the personal views and experi- ences of people and acquired knowledge pertinent to disaster management. As mentioned, the availability and forms of knowledge matter in the development of shared situational awareness of the important actors in a specific situation. Collaboration can be carried out in the development of situational awareness since tangible knowledge and clear picture of the situation guide actors in having a better understanding of the tasks that must be undertaken as well as the other appropriate planning strategies that can support in the fulfilment of a goal and provide appropriate response to an unprecedented event (Gergle, Kraut, & Fussell, 2013). In the context of disaster preparedness, having multiple sources of disaster knowledge may lead to varied and overlapping perception of what might actually happen during a disaster but this process could also cause actors to consider other options they have not thought of, once presented logically and join in the process of formulating feasible strategies.
Adaptive Response and Community Resilience
According to UNISDR, resilience is “the ability of a system or society exposed to haz- ards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely
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and efficient manner including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.” Resilience has been defined in different studies and resilience indi- cators have been established to analyse the degree of resilience of communities. The resilience of communities is greatly affected by the social capital present since it is a factor that allows communities to carry out the phases of disaster management and to receive disaster-related policies by the government (Guarnacci, 2016). Resilience is highly related to adaptive re- sponse which encourages the utilization of all possible resources to address disaster-related problems. Though communities consist of people and groups living in the same geographical location, it should not be concluded that they always have an interaction in situations that concern their community. Before, during and after disasters, people act differently due to the difference in their adaptive response. The adaptive response of these actors is based on the different factors such as knowledge, income, livelihood and their proximity to social struc- tures.
Methodology
Qualitative and quantitave methods were undertaken in this study. Supporting literature and interview were part of the qualitative method while a structured survey qustionaire was used to determine the sources of disaster knowledge of school participants, disaster prepar- edness knowledge provided to students and the community and presence of collaboration between the school and community in preparing for disasters and promoting resilience. The questionnaire was also used as the basis for analyzing the knowledge of the schools in their disaster preparedness activities.
Purposive sampling was carried out to ensure that the objectives of the study will be met. The school personnel and administrators were limited to those who teach Science, Social Studies and Health, have received disaster management trainings and school administrators. All participants were from Manila which is considered to be a hotspot of natural hazards. There were a total of 5 private and public schools that were chosen, most were in th 5th Dis- trict of Manila where frequent flooding is prone and other disaster risks were prominent. The participants in the community were limited to barangay officials and commitee heads as- signed to disaster management. A modified questionnaire adopted from Oktari et.al Teach- er’s resource mobilization capacity for disaster was used as an instrument to determine the teacher’s sources of disaster knowledge, their collaboration with communities and identify the factors that inhibit school-community collaboration. Guided by the Complex Adapa- tive Theory, the conceptual framework of this study focused on the basic tenets of the theo- ry such as self-organization, emergence, adaptive system and connectedness emphasizing knowledge as the dynamic context that influences the behavior and perception of schools and communities in disaster preparedness. To describe the knowledge level of schools and communities, knowledge/information asymmetry was used to emphasize how knowledge difference in schools and communites still open opportunities for them collaborate towards the promotion of community resilience.
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Results and Discussion
Knowledge in Dynamic Context
Knowledge is the acquisition of facts or understanding things through experience, asso- ciation or contact as manifested by a person’s degree of familiarity. Knowledge management is crucial in promoting community resilience since it allows the application of relevant infor- mation that would address specific needs. (Seneviratre, Baldry, & Pathirage, 2010). Knowl- edge asymmetry however is an element that could hinder efficient and immediate carrying out of emergency plans since the difference in the level of knowledge could attribute highly to the quality and subject of information an individual can provide. In line with the knowledge asymmetry, the sources of knowledge must also be taken into account. (Militello, Patterson, Bowman, & Wears, 2007). The following results show the source of teachers’ disaster knowl- edge.
Fig. 2 Teacher’s Source of Disaster Knowledge
The results show that most teachers (81.3%) rely on TV as their source of disaster knowl- edge while the second biggest source of knowledge are leaflets, newsletters and posters as well socialization, meetings briefings and seminars. Some teacher participants indicated church advertisements and announcements as their source of disaster knowledge. It can be noted though, that teachers do not receive much disaster knowledge from barangays and govern- ment officials with only 18.9% relying on them for disaster knowledge. The disparity in the application of disaster knowledge could be attributed to the modality by which it was trans- ferred and how it has remained in the consciousness of an individual (Militello, Patterson, Bowman, & Wears, 2007).
Based on the interview conducted with community leaders, their knowledge on disaster preparedness is based on the seminars and trainings provided for them by the local govern- ment. Schools which are part of their communities distribute posters and other information materials. Another source of knowledge of community leaders is the feedback they receive after an emergency or disaster. In the case of one community along Sylvia Street in Manila, the street is flood prone due to its geographical characteristic which is aggravated by clogged sewage system. To address this concern, the community council decided to declog the sewage system and asked the local government to improve road system. Another community which faces the threat of flood decided to cover street canal to avert the accumulation of garbage and reduce the occurrence of flood. Based on the response of the barangay leaders, alongside
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the disaster preparedness measures they receive from the local government unit, they utilize their local knowledge in preparing for disasters and reducing the risks of their communities to hazards and disasters. Based on studies, the use of local knowledge in disaster prepared- ness is recognized as an important system to promote resilience in a community through their available resources and their familiarity to their geographical location (Hiwasaki, Luna, Syamsidik, & Shaw, 2014).
Fig. 3 shows the disaster preparedness knowledge provided by school teachers to their students. Disaster warning is the disaster preparedness knowledge provided by the teachers. Among the subjects of disaster preparedness, disaster warning was the common subject most participants provide to students followed by firs aid with 63% and search and rescue with 62.5%/ Other participants indicated providing knowledge on preparing for the “Go bags” and the “3-Day Survival Kit.
Disaster warning systems are critical to ensuring disaster preparedness. People regard warnings to be part of a precautionary measure that could keep them from getting harmed or being in a bad situation. Though people understand its importance, warnings are often neglected unless people are personally affected by disasters or are closed to being affected. Warnings work better if they are delivered on a more personal level, taking into account the familiarity of people on disasters that might occur. Taking for instance the case of the affect- ed people of super-typhoon Haiyan, a huge number of people miscalculated the possible impact of the typhoon since the warnings were provided en masse so people had difficulty relating to them in a more personal or local level (Jibiki, Kure, Kuri, & Ono, 2015).
Fig. 3 Disaster Preparedness Knowledge Provided
Knowledge Asymmetry in Disaster Preparedness Phases: School-Based and Community Based
Planning
The basic aspects of disaster preparedness entail planning, knowledge generation through advocacy, education and training and resource management (Bolton, Kim, & Pat, 2014). A community is a system that consists of different elements that has the capacity to self-organ- ize and adapt to changes in a non-linear pattern. Schools and socio-political units being ele- ments of a system can have disaster management skills dependent on each other though this dependency could is not present at all times. Disaster planning entails mutual arrangement with other groups and institutions, creation of SOP and ICS, and disaster management plans. Based on the results of the study, Schools have more systematic way of organizing an Incident Command System (ICS) than the barangays near them. One school has created a school- based ICS which will be initiated when a disaster strikes. The ICS of the school involves all departments and personnel as well as their designation in the system. Since the school is a private institution, it has allocated 3 Million Pesos as a contingency fund to be released when a big disaster strikes on a school day or has caused huge damages to the school. Annual mon- itoring of school structures and equipment is also observed using their own checklist. An-
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other plan of the school that concerns disaster management is the creation of an “elite team” which will serve as the main support group of the school during and after a disaster. Head members of the ICS meet at least once a year to discuss the latest updates on disaster man- agement. The president of the school serves as the incident commander while the head of the Safety and Security Office will be the assistant Incident Commander. In addition evacuation maps are displayed in every office alongside disaster preparedness measures.
During the interview with Barangay leaders, most leaders agree on the importance of disaster preparedness in the community level. To address their concerns on disaster man- agement one Kagawad (Barangay Councilor) heads the Disaster Management Committee. According to them, disaster planning is part of their bi-annual general assembly. An Incident Command System is also available however, the designation of roles is limited to active ba- rangay officials only. Identification of high risk structures is also part of their disaster risk reduction strategy. Based on the responses of barangay leaders, they focus much on disaster response and recovery.
Advocacy and Information Dissemination
75% of the teachers answered that they have observed Disaster Consciousness Month while the remaining 25% said they have not. In the observance of the Disaster Consciousness Month, 91% has focused their activities on simulations and drills, followed by symposia and other related activities. Other respondents included the preparation for 72 hour kit and Go bags. Most schools have warnings signs placed in conspicuous areas. All school administra- tors support national activities on disaster preparedness such as the nationwide simultaneous earthquake drill organized by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Council (NDRRMC).
The Barangays that participated in the study all showed flood warning signs on posts which are color coded relative to the height of flood and the types of vehicles that could pass. Bi-annual meetings are also held that provide community members of the updates on the community’s disaster risk reduction practices. Barangays also emphasize the importance of human capital as a source of disaster knowledge by allowing specific groups to assist in the community’s disaster preparedness plans thus enhancing their resilience.
Education and Trainings
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Based on the responses of the participants, knowledge on disaster management planning, rescue and evacuation, rescue management and early warning were the common themes of trainings and seminars they have attended. While others manage to provide disaster knowl- edge based on DRR toolkits provided for them by the school. Knowledge on disaster man- agement was common among teachers thus in conducting activities central to disaster man- agement, disaster management disaster warning activities had the highest participation of teachers and students.
Resource Management
Public schools rely much on the budget appropriation on disaster management through the division of city schools in Manila. Some NGOs also donate materials to them central to disaster preparedness. Private schools on the other hand, allocate at least P1-3 Million of their total fund to disaster related concerns.
The budgetary requirements for personal services, maintenance and other operating ex- penditures, and capital outlay of the LDRRMO or BDRRMC shall be sourced from the Gen- eral Fund of the LGU, subject to Section 76 of RA 7160.
Emergence of Possibilities through Connectedness and Collaboration
56.3% of the respondents said they do not have direct collaboration with the communities near to their school while 43.7% said they t have collaboration with the communities. 75% of the respondents who had collaboration with communities recognized the Parent Teacher Association as the main group they collaborated with, while 50% collaborated with the Ba- rangays and 48.3% collaborated with government agencies.
An interview with community leaders, school principals, school administrators was con- ducted in areas with high risk of naturals hazards in Manila. Part of the interview included the collaboration between the school and community as well as the disaster preparedness practices carried out by the community and school. Based on the interview, the risk that is most prevalent among the communities is flood, followed by fire. Most communities pre- pare for disasters using their knowledge on the geographical location of their area and the feedbacks they accumulated after a disaster. 68% of the participants claimed that they have conducted seminars, briefings and workshops in the barangay nearest to their school. Fig. 6 shows the resources that school teachers have used in conducting their seminar.
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Fig. 6 Sources Used
DRR Kits provided by government agencies such as DepEd, NDRRMC, and DILG were utilized more compared to other sources. 31% of the respondents correspond to those who have not conducted any briefings or seminars to barangays near their school. Personal expe- rience shows significance since most teachers show significant knowledge of the hazards they are prone to. Personal experiences in disasters allow people to develop an adaptive pattern which can be applied not just a response to a disaster but also a source of disaster knowledge (Daramola, Oni, Ogundele, & Adesanya, 2016). Such knowledge is considered tacit or the knowledge that is embedded in an individual’s belief system and cultivated through experi- ence and actions. This knowledge allows one to determine the course of action, resources to be utilized and possible solutions in the context of disaster preparedness (Oktari, Shiwaku, Munadi, Syamsidik, & Shaw, 2015). The participants stated that the school and community collaborate in most of the issues that concern their area but reiterated that disaster prepar- edness collaboration is not very strong due to several factors that keep them from strength- ening their partnership in preparing for disasters. Both the school and community resort to utilizing the resources they have in order to raise disaster preparedness awareness within their community. Some of the collaborative practices they mentioned were the following: (i) Parent-Teacher Association (PTA) seminar on Disaster Risk Management which was held in July 2015. The said seminar was attended mostly of the PTA class officers and was conducted by officers from the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority though no barangay offi- cial within the nearby community was present. (ii) Some schools also provided leaflets and displayed a tarpaulin on disaster risk reduction and; (iii) an agreement between the school and barangay was drafted making the school an evacuation site shall the need of the barangay to evacuate arises.
Partnership with private organizations was also done by schools. The Ayala Taft An- ti-Crime Consortium (ATCACC) was created in 2004 which promotes collaboration be- tween barangays and schools to reduce crimes and create a support system network that can be activated when a disaster strikes the area they are part of.
The Department of Education (DepEd) also encouraged the collaboration of schools and communities through a series of orders released after the implementation of RA 10121 also known as the Philippine Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Act of 2010. The Department of Education released D.O. 27, s.2015, an order Promoting Family Earthquake Preparedness which instructed elementary and secondary school teachers to ask the students to accomplish a homework related to earthquake preparedness which must be answered by
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students together with their families. D.O 23, s 2015 was also released which Student-Led School Watching and Hazard Mapping which aimed to allow learners to identify potential risks and hazards.
Factors that Inhibit School Community
A lot of studies have recognized the importance of school-community collaboration in the context of disaster risk reduction especially in disaster preparedness (Oktari, Shiwaku, Munadi, Syamsidik, & Shaw, 2015). School and community collaboration however is not as extensive in the country as it is in most countries even though its susceptibility to hazards is high. The result of the study shows that the availability of the resources to be utilized in disaster preparedness strategies is the main factor that hurdles school-community collabo- ration. Next is the willingness of stakeholders to participate or be part of the collaboration. The implementing policies and organizational structures seem to be factors that stir up con- fusion among participants. The implementing policies and organizational structure have an implication on the willingness of people to participate in strategies that involve multi-divi- sion policies and structures that are not highly similar. The cultural perspective of people on disaster on the other hand is could be influenced by the different level of disaster knowledge each member carries. Each member of a community employs “different interests, knowledge resources, and capacities”, “motivation and awareness of particular risks (Parsizadeha, Ibrion, Mokhtari, Lein, & Nadim, 2015).
Fig. 7 Factors that Inhibit School-Community Collaboration on Disater Preparedess
5.Conclusion
The toll of disasters has taken the lives of many people, destroyed infrastructures and paralyzed economic activities which affect people from different sectors of the society, thus the strong collaboration between stakeholders for disaster preparedness must be seen as an important element of community resilience. Though the knowledge level of schools and communities create a dynamic context of a system which creates complexities, the complex- ities brought about by asymmetric information opens opportunities both for schools and communities to develop situational awareness and adaptive response fit to the needs of the community.
Part of the results, showed that some schools and local communities do not have direct and strong collaboration though stakeholders recognize the importance of both institutions in disaster preparedness and the dissemination of information relevant to the needs of the people in relation to disaster management.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2019.1.2.5
UDC: 351.759.6
005.334:504.4
Article
DISASTER GOVERNANCE AND COMMUNITY RESILIENCE:
THE LAW AND THE ROLE OF SDMAs
Natasha Goyal1 Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi
Correspondence: gian_rico@dlsu.edu.ph
Received: 11 October; Accepted: 20 November; Published: 25 December
Abstract: Disasters have become more profound in intensity and frequent in oc- currence due to climate change. The unpredictable and devastating consequences of rising global temperature has raised the alarm bells for ‘rapid and far-reaching’ transitions in land, energy and urban governance. The recent devastation due to floods in Kerala in August 2018, has brought disaster governance to the main- stream in government accountability. Despite high performance on Human De- velopment Indicators and social infrastructure, the failure of the state government in ensuring adequate preparedness and mitigation through capacity building has pushed back the development of the state by decades. Trust deficit in the face of administrative negligence and executive callousness hindered the translation of scientific information into understandable warnings for first line responders. The havoc was significantly man made as the local administration failed to regulate blatant violations of Coastal Zone regulations even after repeated warnings from Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel report. The focus of state policy on human development has ignored the crucial aspect of ensuring active citizen participa- tion in the development process. This has resulted in citizens becoming passive recipients of state entitlements, rather than active agents in a democracy. This paper is a critical view on disaster policies in India, which continue to ignore the decentralized institutions as crucial institutions in disaster management. The laudable role of fishermen in rescue and relief in the aftermath of Kerala floods clearly emphasizes that communities can no longer be ignored in the framework of disaster cycle. In a country which witnesses ubiquitous ‘regime of noncom- pliance’ to building bye laws, coastal zone regulations, land use plans and other safety laws, decentralized disaster management can help in building community resilience and ensuring accountability and transparency of government institu- tions. The argument gets underscored in a scenario where institutions of Disaster Management continue to focus on post disaster relief and rehabilitation, due to lack of enforcement powers of disaster management institutions, to ensure com- pliance of preventive measures in development planning and infrastructure.
Keywords: Kerala State Disaster Management Authority, Community Resilience, Kerala floods, Vulnerability, Disaster Governance
1. Introduction
Disaster is defined as an event which has irretrievable socio-economic and environmental costs for natural and built environment of the affected region, making the devastation exceed beyond the capacity of the local community to self-recover, thus making external assistance necessary. The 2010 report by World Bank and United Nations titled ‘Natural Hazards, Un- natural Disasters’ highlights the social construction of the devastation which disasters ex- pose. The frailties are a result of cumulative effect of individual and community decisions on issues such as land use provisions, negligence of construction and sanitation infrastructure laws and regulations, lack of social integration and poverty reduction etc. Hence, the haz- ards can be natural. However, the devastation is aggravated by man-made actions. Lack of preventive action plans, resources and community resilience contribute to prolonged and delayed adverse effect on environment and increased social vulnerability. The situation de- mands urgency in a country with limited resources and inhabiting one fifth of world’s poor, making such devastation unaffordable. Their recurrence in a developing country has high opportunity cost, as non-anticipation of such devastating events in advance leads to disrup- tion of planned expenditure on poverty alleviation due to diversion of scarce resources for reconstruction and relief efforts
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) regime in India is incapacitated by significant frailties despite resources and a legitimate machinery. The recent Kerala floods (2018) testify the un- predictability of disasters and the lack of preparedness of disaster management institutions in India despite enormous fund flows and a legitimate administrative structure in place. The massive floods has brought the focus on the unbridled embracing of short term material gains and material wealth, which has been accompanied by unprecedented levels of environ- mental destruction and rapid amplification of socially constructed vulnerabilities. This paper attempts to explore the question of ‘why a disaster’, beyond the questions of ‘what a disaster is’ and ‘what a disaster does’. Administrative negligence and performance deficit in the func- tioning of State Disaster Management Authorities continue even after more than a decade of enactment of the Disaster Management Act 2005 and the Hyogo Declaration. The structures of governance in state and district continue to be ill-prepared and least connected to the communities, which has become a primary reason of increased destruction during disasters.
The development model of Kerala although scores high on social indicators vis-a-vis the scenario at the national level, which fulfils the mandate of Sendai Framework of addressing social vulnerabilities among the people, the development process has been steered by un- accountable and non-transparent institutions. Lack of preparedness has been witnessed as water management practices had been limited to small schemes ignoring the local tiers of government. Lack of enforcement of land use laws and planning has been the main cause of haphazard human interventions. The havoc of the Kerala floods of August 2018 was largely man-made. Increased population pressure and enhanced economic resources due to inflow of remittances from the Gulf countries has resulted in encroachment of paddy fields and natural land contours by the commercial establishments. Such concretization of land and blockage of natural drainage channels and absorption areas, resulted in massive runoff of the surface water towards the coast and the sea. Due to high tide coinciding with incessant rains, the water could not empty into the sea and got blocked in these urbanized pockets. Encroachment of huge tracts of hills and mountains, massive deforestation of natural vege- tation to develop cash crops and commercial settlements over the decades has increased the vulnerability to landslides in the hilly areas.
The immediate cause of floods in the plains (especially in the central districts) was the mismanagement of the flow from the dams. The withholding of excessive water by the Kerala
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State Electricity Board (to defer a situation of water scarcity post monsoon) led to water level in the reservoir breaching their maximum withholding capacity, even before the days of max- imum rainfall in August 2018. Opening of the dam gates suddenly and simultaneously led to overflowing of embankments of the rivers and the canals. Extreme rainfall, low flood storage capacity in the reservoirs, poor drainage capacity of canals and immediate runoff due to mas- sive deforestation culminated in the devastating floods in the state. Illegal sand mining and quarrying over the years, to meet the demand of new trend of unsustainable urbanization, non-suitable to the local weather conditions has made the state more vulnerable. There is an urgent need of strengthening the disaster management institutions through devolution of more legal, financial and punitive powers for enforcement of mitigation measures, bridging governance deficit and building community resilience.
Objectives of Research and Methods
The paper attempts to present a critical view on disaster management policies in India through the case study of recent floods of August 2018 in Kerala. Even after more than a dec- ade of enactment of Disaster Management Act 2005, disaster prevention and mitigation con- tinues to be accorded least priority in development planning and enforcement. The concept of parens patriae has put the state under the obligation to protect the persons with no legal protector, resulting in state’s role to be limited to the realm of rendering relief and rehabilita- tion to the victims of disasters. Exploratory, descriptive and doctrino-legal study of Disaster Management Act 2005, Kerala Disaster Management Plan, Coastal Regulation Zones and government reports (Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on Schemes for Flood Control and Flood Forecasting, 2017 and Kerala Post Disaster Needs Assessment: Floods and Landslides 2018) has been attempted to study the extent of legal compliance to environment safety regulations and investigate the administrative compliance to adequate preventive measures. Semi-structured interviews with the government officials from Nation- al Disaster Management Authority and Kerala State Disaster Management Authority were undertaken to inquire into the enforcement powers of these institutions, in terms of curbing the illegal encroachments, which is the primary reason for increasing vulnerability of the communities. Semi-quantitative approach to study land use changes and urbanization trends in the state has been undertaken to understand the culpability of anthropogenic factors be- hind the current devastation.
Disaster Management Framework in India: An Overview
Disaster management in India was institutionalized through enactment of the Disaster Management Act (DMA), 2005. The Act lays down institutional and coordination mecha- nism for effective disaster management at national, state, district and local level. The mul- ti-tiered institutional system consists of National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) at national, State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) at state and District Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) at district level. The aim of the act was to facilitate shift from ‘post disaster’ relief and rehabilitation to proactive approach of integration of disaster preparedness, mitigation and emergency response into development planning. However, the DMA 2005 has become a standalone law with no toolkit for coordinating performance with other state institutions (Singh, 2018). Despite the framework of institutions of disaster man- agement and the provision of National Disaster Relief Fund and National Disaster Mitigation
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Fund as per the 2005 Act, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in India lags behind even the basic parameters of vulnerability analysis among the local communities. Vulnerability is exacer- bated for a developing country such as India, due to its location in the tropical belt and the challenges of increasing population density amidst resource scarcity. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events suggests that disasters can no longer be caged in the vacuous argument of ‘Act of God’.
The concept of ‘vulnerability’ in the epistemology of disaster research emphasizes on the need to attend to the social frailties and lack of community resilience. It underscores the need to adopt bottom up approach, so that the capacity of the population to absorb, recover and respond to the impact of an event can be increased. Anthony Oliver Smith (2006:10) empha- sizes that;
“The historically produced socio-cultural construction is channeled and distributed in the form of risk within the society according to political, social and economic practices and in- stitutions in the form of socially generated and politically enforced productive and allocative patterns”
Hence, addressing the social, political and economic frailties has become an indispensa- ble part of disaster governance in India, especially in the present scenario of unrestrained and irreversible repercussions of human induced climate change and development practic- es, marked by increasing demand and human negligence. Effective disaster governance de- mands much more, beyond simply institutionalizing the State Disaster Management Author- ity (SDMA) and District Disaster Management Authority (DDMAs), which is not the last, but a first step in the trajectory of saving lives and resilient planning and development.
Development Model of Kerala: Increasing Risks and Vulnerabilities
Kerala was the first state in the country to enact its own State Disaster Management Act, post the enactment of National Disaster Management Act, 2005. The development model of Kerala is termed as ‘human development led’ growth model, which is a result of system- atic investment in social sectors such as health, education etc. over a period of time. The eighth most populated state in India inhabited by population of 3.34 crore (Census 2011), it is known for its high scores on human development indices. The state has highest Human Development Index of 0.625 (higher than the national average of 0.504) and highest score on Social Progress Index (68.09 points2) across the nation. It has favorable Sex Ratio (1,084 females to 1000 males) vis a vis the national average of 9403. The women in the age group 15- 24 have seen increased enrollment in education. The state has seen laudable performance on social indicators such as literacy rate (94% as compared to national average of 73%4), Infant Mortality Rate (4 as against national average of 345) and life expectancy at birth (75.2 years as
The SPI Report focused on three major indices like basic human needs, foundation of well-being and opportunities. Kerala received the highest score on social progress. It scored 73.8 on Basic human needs index, 65.4 on foundation of wellbeing and 65.1 on index of opportunity. Report available at https://cdn. givingcompass.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/13103552/SPI_Districts_Final.pdf
Department of Economic and Statistics (2017), Gender Statistics 2016–17, Publication Division, Department of Economics & Statistics, Government of Kerala.
Office of the Registrar General (2011), Census of India 2011, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India.
Estimates of the Mortality Indicators. Retrieved from http://www.censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics/SRS_ Report_2016/8.Chap%204-Mortality%20Indicators-2016.pdf. Last visited on 20 November 2019
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against national average of 68.8 years6). Human Development in Kerala has also been more equitable, as can be seen from its best performance on inequality-adjusted HDI7.
Fig 1. Flood affected areas in Kerala. Source: http://sdma.kerala.gov.in/
The 590 km long coastline of Kerala has a chain of backwaters, interconnected by nat- ural and man-made canals. The non- equatorial wet evergreen forest of Western Ghats are endowed with a variety of endemic species, making it a bio-diversity hotspot. The cluster of Periyar, Anamalai, Nilgiri and Agasthayamalai figure on the World Heritage List. Vembanad and Kole wetlands are covered under the Ramsar list of wetlands. However, the unbridled urbanization and commercial agriculture has made these areas vulnerable to many disasters. Livestock farming, unsustainable extraction of fuel wood, tourism beyond the carrying ca- pacity, pollution from mining and industries, deforestation and land use changes, illegal en- croachments and unbridled consumerism has degraded this self-sustaining ecosystem. The changes in micro-climate has resulted in cascading impacts on environment, demonstrating multiple linkages between environment and disaster risk.
Urban population in Kerala has registered huge growth over the last few decades, catapult- ing the process of land acquisition for urban centers, leaving no forest cover to arrest the run off post floods. Shift from the food crops to the export oriented commercial crops during the 1960s subjected the state to development pattern change, detrimental to the existing forest cover of ecology sensitive Western Ghats (United Nations, 2019). The unsustainable use of
6 Department of Economic Affairs (2018), Economic Survey of India 2017–18. Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance Government of India.
Suryanarayana, M.H., Agrawal A. and Prabhu, K. (2011) Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index for India’s States, UNDP. Accessed from http://www.undp.org/content/dam/india/docs/inequality_adjusted_ human_development_index_for_indias_state1.pdfLast Visited on 2 November 2019
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land has resulted in imbalance in ecology. Urbanization in the upper watersheds of rivers, particularly in hills, has led to heavy run off due to erosion of top soil, vanishing the natural capacity of such systems to absorb rainwater. Although the economic growth of the state is largely attributed to the remittances received by the inhabitants, and resultant investment into sectors such as education, the state faces many challenges such as increasing aged pop- ulation, high unemployment rates, gender inequality and low agricultural industrial growth.
Warned, Yet Unprepared- Kerala Floods 2018: Nature’s fury or Governance deficit?
The recent floods in Kerala was a result of administrative intransigence and neglect of lo- cal communities to build community resilience. Even after the institutionalization of SDMA and DDMA, these institutions were ill-equipped to handle disasters. The heavy downpour from 1st June to 19th August 2018 was 42 per cent above normal, with disproportionately higher downpour (164 per cent above normal), only in the month of August (Mishra et al., 2018). As six of the seven major reservoirs were already at more than 90 per cent of their full capacity, even before unprecedented extreme downpour between 14- 25 August 2018, the saturated condition in the reservoirs (Idduki, Kallada, Kakki, Idamalyar, Periyar, Parambiku- lam and Malampuzha) reduced their ability to accommodate the additional rainfall. As a re- sult, the authorities had to release substantial amount of water abruptly by opening 37 dams simultaneously. Although, the state received less amount of rainfall than what it received in 1924 and 1961, massive land use cover change has adversely affected the capacity of the state to respond to such massive rainfall. The concretization and deforestation over the decades led to accelerated flow of flood waters, breaching the river embankments, silting lakes, riv- ers, and canals and blocking the sea mouths. Construction of houses on unstable mountain slopes, ignoring the building safety standards in construction of plinth and lintel, aggravated the vulnerability to landslides.
Soil erosion due to loss of forest cover also resulted in increased siltation in dam reservoirs, reducing 22% water storage capacity of the dams (Ramkrishnan R. and Ramachandra, T.V., 2016). An example to cite is of Kuttanad backwater systems, which have witnessed an increasing extent of cultivated areas below the sea level over the years, lowering the capacity of such systems to act as natural water absorbents (United Nations PDNA report, 2019: 66). Shifting emphasis on urbanization, cash crops and plantations in hilly areas has raised water and soil conservation concerns. Breakwaters built to create small harbors on the coasts has resulted in siltation of sea outlet, lowering the outflow capacity of the canal, besides having detrimental impact on the natural coastline. Salinity intrusion into the lower stretches of monsoon fed rivers reduced the flushing capacity of the system.
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Fig. 2 Temporal variation of Land use dynamics in Kerala over four decades
(decreasing extent of green color indicates the reducing forest cover in the state over the years).
Source: Ramkrishnan R. and Ramachandra, T. V., “Four decades of forest loss: Droughts in Kerala (Poster)”, Lake 2016: Conference on Conservation and Sustainable Management of Ecologically Sensitive Regions in Western Ghats, 10th Biennial Lake Conference: Wetlands for Our Future.
Mangalore, Karnataka.2016.
The report of Comptroller and Auditor General (2017) had highlighted several loopholes in governance, which clearly indicate the culpability of the state government in the present state of helplessness. The report clearly brings out the state inaction in preparation of Emer- gency Action Plan and disaster management plan for the dams constructed by the govern- ment. No dam break analysis, hydrology studies and inundation maps were carried out for the 61 dams constructed by the government8. The administration did not comply with the guidelines prepared by Rashtriya Barh Ayogh (RBA) to identify flood prone areas to reduce damage due to floods9. Lackadaisical attitude of the administration in sharing the detailed maps of river basins with the Central Water Commission and Ganga Flood Control Commis- sion (GFCC) caused inordinate delay in assessment by these bodies. There were no quality
Report of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India on Schemes for Flood Control and Flood Forecasting Union Government Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation Report No. 10 of 2017 (Performance Audit). Page 66-67
As per RBA guidelines, the state government were required to map the flood prone areas and coordinate with the Central Water Commission and Ganga Flood Control Commission (GFCC) by furnishing adequate data and maps. Such assessment was to be undertaken every five year plan.
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checks on the four flood management program being undertaken by Kerala Electrical & Al- lied Engineering Co. Ltd (KEL). The report also clearly highlights the financial irregularities in KEL-2 project being undertaken by the Kuttanadu Development Division, Mankombu10.
Trust Deficit and ‘Non’ Participative Governance: A Case Study of Western Ghats
Governance deficit can be seen in flagrant violation of environmental norms in coastal areas by vested interests, which has resulted in large amount of unsafe buildings and non-en- gineered structures and blatant violation of CRZ norms. Ignorance of scientific and expert study with respect to fragile ecosystems such as the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel re- port is a veritable illustration. The panel headed by Madhav Gadgil had made several recom- mendations such as an indefinite moratorium on new environmental clearances for mining and complete prohibition on polluting industries (red and orange category) in the Ecologi- cally Sensitive Zones 1 and 2. It also recommended revocation of permission for large scale hydro power projects due to the large scale land use changes and the resultant loss of bio-di- versity due to submergence and building constructions. Strict regulation of existing mining and industrial activities under the lens of an effective system of social audit, change in the methodology of assessing the ‘cumulative impact’ of development activities from a central- ized EIA based techno-centric study to becoming a more participative exercise ensuring lo- cal community participation, have remained confined to paper. The report clearly indicated towards siltation of water bodies and river bed pollution due to incessant illegal mining, loss of fertile agricultural land due to deforestation and loss of endemic and unique biodiversity in the Western Ghats11. The report emphasized clearly that the innumerable industries in the biodiversity hotspot were being allowed to operate in clear violation of the Zoning Atlas- es for Siting of Industries (ZASI) guidelines12 prescribed by the Central and State Pollution Control Boards. Such deficit in ‘environmental governance’ has led to violation of regional plans of sustainable development. As Madhav Gadgil pointed out, “developments in the state have materially compromised its ability to deal with events like this and greatly increased the magnitude of the suffering. Had proper steps been taken, the scale of the disaster would have been nowhere near what it is today”13.
In addition to the irretrievable exploitation of natural resources, the highly centralized for- mulation of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports has made the environmental clearance process defective, non -participative and non- transparent. Conflicts around land acquisition for industrial, power and mining projects by invoking the emergency provisions of the Land Acquisition bill have led to grave social discontent and alienation from demo- cratic process in the area. Violation of the law governing the hills and rivers and the coasts (such as Coastal Regulation Zones laws), privatization of mangroves, and release of untreated effluents in the rivers from industries resulting in cancer among inhabitants underscores the irreversible damage being caused to the environment. Unquantified is the environmental
Ibid., page 44
Report of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (2011). Ministry of Environment and Forest. Government of India. Pp. 71-75. Accessed from http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/ report%20of%20the%20western%20ghats%20ecology%20expert%20panel.pdf.
The guidelines delineate the environmentally and socially sensitive zones in which the location of air and water polluting industries is prohibited.
Financial Express (2018). Was the Kerala deluge avoidable? Eminent scientist says disaster partly ‘man- made’. Accessed from https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/was-the-kerala-deluge-avoidable- eminent-scientist-says-disaster-partly-man-made/1286365/. Last visited on 20 November 2019
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loss due to deforestation in the Western Ghats, unscientific and haphazard granite quarrying, construction of roads in forest lands and encroachment of forests for crop cultivation, tour- ism has led to indiscriminate dispersal of non-degradable waste, which hitherto absorbed the surface excess water and in-turn recharged the acquirers (Kannan, 2018).
Coastal Regulation Zones: Economy precedes Conservation
The Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ- 2011) notification14 were released by the Ministry of Environment and Forest, to regulate coastal areas of India. The CRZ area constituted the coastal land up to 500 meters from the High Tide Line (HTL) and zone of 100 meters along the banks of backwater, estuaries, creeks and rivers, where the tidal fluctuations occur. As per the 1991 notification15, the coastal areas were classified into four categories: CRZ-I, CRZ-II, CRZ-III and CRZ-IV. CRZ-I denoted the ecologically sensitive areas, CRZ-II – the built-up areas, CRZ-III- the rural areas and CRZ-IV- the water areas. These regions were considered as restricted areas for development of industries. CRZ I consisted of ecologically sensitive areas which lie between the high and low tide line, with only natural gas exploration and salt extraction being allowed in these areas. CRZ II areas which consisted of the areas up-to the shoreline of the coast, restricted the construction of unauthorized structures. The CRZ III zone, which comprised of both rural and urban areas, permitted only agriculture related activities and public facilities. The CRZ IV areas consisted of aquatic areas up to territorial limits that is, the water areas up-to the territorial waters and tidal influenced water bodies.
The 2011 CRZ notification aimed at ensuring livelihood security of fishing and local com- munities inhabiting the coastal areas and promoting sustainable development. However, the non-compliance with the CRZ laws has made the water bodies vulnerable to disasters and socio-economic destruction (Singh, 2016: 70). Frequent amendments to the CRZ notifica- tion opens the pathway of unbridled exploitation by industrial and commercial exploitation. The recent 2018 notification by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change16 (MoEF&CC) has proposed relaxation of the regime of clearance requirement for construc- tion projects in the coastal areas, for the development of tourism and industrial infrastruc- ture. As per the notification, amendments are proposed to the kind of activities which would be permitted in each of the demarcated zones and the permitting authority for such activities. The projects proposed under CRZ-I (ecologically sensitive areas) and CRZ-IV (areas covered between LTL and 12 nautical miles seaward) would require the approval of central govern- ment, while the power of granting permissions for projects in CRZ-II (areas that have been developed up to or close to the shoreline) and CRZ-III (areas that are relatively undisturbed) regions has been delegated to the respective state governments. The guidelines have signaled permitting the construction of nature trails and mangrove walks in CRZ-I A areas, under the banner of ecology-tourism (CRZ-I A areas are sub category under CRZ I areas, which largely consist of ecologically sensitive areas). Construction of roads of stilts, laying of pipelines and transmission lines for public utilities has been allowed in the mangrove buffer, which may
Ministry of Environment and Forest (2011). The Coastal Regulation Zone notification 2011. Accessed from https://parivesh.nic.in/writereaddata/ENV/crz23.PDF. Last visited on 20 November 2019
Ministry of Environment and Forest (1991). The Coastal Regulation Zone notification 1991. Accessed from http://www.indiansaltisma.com/web-admin/view//upload//file//memimage_8116.pdf. Last visited on 20 November 2019
Press Information Bureau (2018). Cabinet approves Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Notification 2018. Government of India. Accessed from https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=186875. Last visited on 20 November 2019
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disturb the marine life and pave way for destruction of ecosystems. The guidelines have also proposed to permit temporary tourism facilities in No Development Zones of CRZ III areas.
The construction norms regarding Floor Space Index (FSI) and criteria with respect to No Development Zone (NDZ) have been relaxed for permitting tourism and real estate develop- ment in coastal areas for economic growth. The draft notification has proposed the reduction of No Development Zone in rural areas under CRZ- III A (which has population density of 2,161/ Square Kilometer) from 200 meters (as under the 2011 notification) to 50 meters17. Temporary tourism facilities such as toilet blocks, drinking water facilities, shacks have been permitted within 10 meters of waterline on beaches, with the regulation power for such activ- ities divested with the state government and local town planning authorities. The local fisher folk have raised concerns about development of beach tourism, as this may hamper their live- lihood security by invasion of land by tourist private interests in the form of concrete roads.
State institutions continue to be unaccountable for the travesty of unbridled exploitation of natural resources, which would inevitably lead to irreversible environmental loss and dam- age, making the coastal communities even more vulnerable. This is not only bad governance, but also bad economics. Ignoring conservation norms for short term GDP growth will lead to increasing vulnerabilities and frequency and intensity of loss of human life and physi- cal infrastructure, demanding further investment for relief, rehabilitation and building back better. A developing country such as India cannot afford this long cycle of resilient devel- opment. These recent changes to the Coastal Regulation Zones regulations clearly highlight the continued non accountability of executive and legislature in the state of Kerala, amidst a weak State Disaster Management Authority, which even after a decade of coming into effect, lacks the power of enforcing risk mitigation measures into state development planning and growth.
Disaster management has become a highly politicized event in a democracy such as India. Since distribution of relief and rehabilitation garners citizen’s attention and votes, prevention is usually brushed under the carpet, as such steps may go un-noticed among the people in a democracy. The extent of relief is directly proportional to citizen’s votes during an election. As a result, non-accountability and non-transparency is allowed and nurtured, at the cost of lives of marginalized. The crisis becomes a subject of ‘politics and economics’, rather than ‘ethics and administration’. The lack of preparedness of the state got clocked behind the blame game amongst the state authorities, community institutions and the institutions of science to allege what the ‘other’ failed to do. The crude realities of law and governance such as the lack of accountability amongst the ill-informed institutions and organizations and deep gulf of ‘uneducated information’ on disasters where scientists either divert the blame to climate change or the administrator targets it as ‘an Act of God’ is conveniently ignored once the rehabilitation process rolls. The absence of planned measures in rescue, relief and medical assistance was widely clear in the areas such as Idukki, Elapally and Thodupuzha, where the first hand responders were NGOs such as Sewa Bharti in Ranni (Singh et al, 2018:24). The lack of organizational training (of police, electricity department, and district town and coun- try planners) and non-institutionalizing of State Disaster Mitigation Fund reveals the least priority accorded to disaster governance in the state.
Ibid.
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Four Pillars of Disaster Governance:
A Step towards Invulnerable Development
Disaster Governance rests on four pillars:
Addressing marginalization of local communities – focus on social, economic, political vulnerabilities
Transparency and accountability of Institutions- Executive and Legislative Institutions during the four cycles of disaster governance- mitigation, preparedness, response and rehabilitation
Strengthening of disaster management institutions- giving them more powers of enforce- ability of mitigation measures in development planning
Building community resilience –reducing the gap between state institutions and local people.
Fig 3. Four pillars of Disaster Governance. Source: Author’s
The concept of ‘Invulnerable development’ takes into account all the four aspects of dis- aster management, viz. disaster mitigation, preparation, response and recovery. The concept involves an inter-disciplinary approach across the disciplines of geography, meteorology, anthropology, engineering and economics, to reduce vulnerability (McEntire, 1998:216). It takes into account various disaster intensifying variables, such as physical (which mainly fo- cus on detailed planning of the infrastructure projects), geographical (such as assessment of potential hazards and vulnerability zones through structural mitigation devices etc.). Various social variables are also taken into account to safeguard the process of development. These consist of enhancing community participation in terms of educating the public about disas- ters, improvising the services such as health care, managing urbanization, adopting methods to reverse the marginalization of specific groups like minorities, the disabled and women, who are more vulnerable to disasters due to the factors of age, sex or poverty. This may be undertaken by shaping people’s attitudes towards hazards and encouraging self-reliance upon traditional coping mechanisms, which have proved to be an effective tool of response and resilience. Certain steps such as institutionalization and adoption of insuring policies and mechanisms against potential economic losses could become an important tool to ad- dress vulnerabilities. Indispensability of the fourth pillar of building community resilience, for effective disaster governance in building transparency and resilience.
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Disaster Risk Mitigation and Resilience:
A Case for Building Community Resilience
The lives saved in Kerala have been attributed to the efforts of local fishermen and com- munity leaders, who held the reigns of rescue and relief amidst the floodwaters. This they did, even when there was complete absence of any efforts by State Executive Committee and Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) to reduce the gap between disaster institutions and local community leaders, which makes building community resilience an indispensable part of effective disaster governance. Despite the highest literacy rate in the country, the officials have ignored the local communities as active agents in risk mitigation and prevention. These local communities continued to be seen by the authorities as passive recipients of entitlements, without adequate focus on developing partnership with them in disseminating pre-disaster warning, online and offline alerts and post disaster rescue efforts. While the communities which could form the bridge between the government and officials were ignored, the gap between science institutions and government was widely clear. There was an absence of any Standard Operating Procedure for the district administration to follow up the Panchayat and the local leaders. The water was released from the dams late at night, with little time for the local community to respond in an effective manner. The warnings issued online by the district administration (in the form of red light and orange light) were non decipherable for the majority of village population due to lack of access to social media platforms (Singh et al. 2018:26). The legibility of the color in the warnings sounded, was also non-comprehensible by the majority of the local people due to lack of training and connec- tivity with the local disaster management authorities.
Despite the gaps in disaster governance, the youth actively volunteered through the use of skills in Information and Communication Technology to help in rescue, distribution of relief and crowd source funds to maintain logistics of transportation. While the Indian Army deployed 104 boats, NDRF 207 boats, Navy 94 and Indian Coast Guard 76 boats, the 4537 odd fishermen community mobilized 669 boats and rescued more than 65 thousand peo- ple (Kannan, 2018). The grit and experience of the fishermen in mechanized country boats helped immensely to facilitate the rescue operations, especially in remote and inaccessible areas. Even though being considered as marginalized community, grappling with the after- math of Ockhi cyclone, these fishermen bravely reached out to the worst affected remote critical areas, spending their own money, to provide relief material, transport fuel and es- sential food items to the rescue camps. Even while themselves reeling under dire conditions, barely making ends meet daily, due to lack of livelihood opportunities, these men risked their own lives, without expecting any monetary benefit for their efforts. The decentralized bodies (Panchayati Raj Institutions, composing more than 50 percent women elected repre- sentatives) played an active role to organize rescue and relief operations by working in close coordination with Revenue Department. Active social capital exemplified by Self Help Group such as Kudumbashree, Aanganwadi and ASHA workers, association of medical profession- als underscores the importance of building community resilience.
Disaster governance in India needs to be implemented through the prism of trans-disci- plinarity, with the aim of empowerment of grass-root communities, to become active agents in development process. The reconstruction post floods needs to be anchored in environ- ment sustainability and social inclusion, keeping in light the principle of Build Back Better (Sendai Framework, Goal 4) and Sustainable Development Goals (2015-30). As the report of United Nations (2019) emphasizes, the state having more than fifty percent area under Western Ghats, needs to internalize the idea of ‘living with water’ by allowing room for the rivers and increasing the space occupied by these river systems. Risk informed approach to
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land use and settlements needs synergy of science, state and community. It emphasizes on ecosystem function and need of inter-sectoral integration and coordination. Ignorance of such framework of development can disproportionately increase the vulnerability of the state further. People centric and inclusive approach is pivotal to ensure environment sustainability and cost effectiveness of post disaster reconstruction. The strong network of Civil Society Organizations, which already complements the government initiatives can be integrated as a tool to undertake awareness development and training, monitoring of compliance to laws and enforcement by exposure and feedback tot the government. This can in-turn help to achieve the goal of Disaster Risk Reduction and building resilience.
Conclusion
The irreversible environmental damage in Kerala was a direct result of lack of accounta- bility and transparency of government institutions and continued neglect of voices from the margins, who suffered silently due to destruction of their habitats in the name of develop- ment. Disaster governance in India continues to focus on technocratic solutions, carried out through bureaucratically organized and centrally controlled institutions. Such techno-centric view in disaster management only serves the purpose of the market and reinforces the walls of cultural hegemony of blind faith in technocratic solutions, to remedy the vulnerabilities and reduce risks. The recent devastation due to extreme rainfall in Kerala in August 2018 was blamed on the sudden downpour being an unprecedented event, which took the adminis- tration by surprise. However, a deeper interrogation suggests the lack of preparedness and lackadaisical attitude adopted by the administration in averting such devastation through efficient inter-departmental coordination and collaboration, considering the frequency of disasters being witnessed by the state in 2004 (Tsunami) and 2017 (Cyclone Ockhi). The de- layed response and lack of inter-departmental coordination in taking measured response to incessant rains filling the dams beyond their carrying capacity and delayed dissemination of timely warning to the inhabitants underscore the fact that mere techno-centric solutions are not sufficient in the present scenario. This is not to negate the importance of Early Warning Systems or scientific instruments such as Seismometers etc. However, holistic disaster man- agement would remain incomplete without incorporating the community participation as active agents of holding the administration accountable and building social capital.
Disasters are a result of repeated failure of governance. The state authorities, communities and the science institutions should share the responsibility of creating and sustaining such events. The repeated human activities in defiance of constitutional, environmental and mu- nicipal laws that gradually builds up a disaster are veiled under the argument of GDP growth and development. Such growth at the cost of ecological balance entrenches the unsustainabil- ity of such development models, which is negated in an instance of un-anticipated incessant rains or tremors in the earth’s crust. Lack of coordination between the enforcement agencies and exclusion of jurisdiction of Disaster Management Authorities (SDMAs and DDMAs) to monitor compliance with the safety norms and regulations needs an urgent attention and policy amendment. The Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the United Nation member states in 2015 and enshrined in Hyogo Framework for Action (2005-15) and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-30) can be fulfilled only through the trajec- tory of ‘In-vulnerable Development’. Bridging the gap between administration and science institutions through incorporating accountability and transparency and building community resilience is crucial for achieving the target of a Resilient India.
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Acknowledgments: The author is grateful to Prof Amita Singh, founder Chairperson, Special Centre for Disaster Research, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi for providing critical insights into the disaster governance in Kerala.
Conflicts of Interest: The author declares no conflict of interest.
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